Daily Papers

Large language models (LLMs) excel at complex reasoning but can still exhibit harmful behaviors. Current alignment strategies typically embed safety into model weights, making these controls implicit, static, and difficult to modify. This paper introduces Cognition-of-Thought (CooT), a novel decoding-time framework that equips LLMs with an explicit cognitive self-monitoring loop. CooT couples a standard text Generator with a cognitive Perceiver that continuously monitors the unfolding sequence. The Perceiver uses a structured, precedence-based hierarchy of principles (e.g., safety over obedience) to detect potential misalignments as they arise. When violations are flagged, CooT intervenes by rolling back the generation to the point of error and regenerating under injected guidance that combines universal social priors with context-specific warnings. CooT thus transforms alignment from a fixed property into an explicit, dynamic, and auditable process active during inference, allowing for flexible policy updates without retraining the model. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks and model families confirm that CooT consistently improves safety and social reasoning performance.

As agentic AI becomes more widespread, agents with distinct and possibly conflicting goals will interact in complex ways. These multi-agent interactions pose a fundamental challenge, particularly in social dilemmas, where agents' individual incentives can undermine collective welfare. While reinforcement learning (RL) has been effective for aligning large language models (LLMs) in the single-agent regime, prior small-network results suggest that standard RL in multi-agent settings often converges to defecting, self-interested policies. We show the same effect in LLMs: despite cooperative priors, RL-trained LLM agents develop opportunistic behavior that can exploit even advanced closed-source models. To address this tendency of RL to converge to poor equilibria, we adapt a recent opponent-learning awareness algorithm, Advantage Alignment, to fine-tune LLMs toward multi-agent cooperation and non-exploitability. We then introduce a group-relative baseline that simplifies advantage computation in iterated games, enabling multi-agent training at LLM scale. We also contribute a novel social dilemma environment, Trust-and-Split, which requires natural language communication to achieve high collective welfare. Across a wide range of social dilemmas, policies learned with Advantage Alignment achieve higher collective payoffs while remaining robust against exploitation by greedy agents. We release all of our code to support future work on multi-agent RL training for LLMs.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used for zero-shot annotation and LLM-as-a-judge tasks, yet their reliability hinges on how model-internalized priors interact with user-provided instructions. We investigate three dimensions of this interaction: (1) how an LLM's familiarity with data and task definitions affects performance, (2) the extent to which additional information in prompts can correct zero-shot errors ("decision stickiness"), and (3) model susceptibility to misaligned task definitions. Through experiments on toxicity detection across diverse datasets (spanning social media, gaming, news, and forums) using both dense and mixture-of-experts models, we find that nearly two-thirds of zero-shot errors are resistant to correction, with an overall rescue rate (fraction of initial errors corrected by prompting) of only 34.8%. High-confidence errors prove especially resistant to correction. When given misaligned definitions, LLMs follow them while maintaining confidence levels unchanged from the aligned condition. Crucially, we introduce Definition-Specific Familiarity (DSF), which measures alignment between a model's internal concept and the task definition. After controlling for dataset-level confounds, DSF shows a positive association with model performance (partial r = +0.41), while three distinct memorization metrics (ROUGE-L, BERTScore, and embedding cosine similarity) all fail to show a positive association. These findings show the limitations of prompt-based correction in annotation tasks, highlighting the importance of definition alignment over text-level memorization.

Large vision-language model (LVLM) based text-to-image (T2I) systems have become the dominant paradigm in image generation, yet whether they amplify social biases remains insufficiently understood. In this paper, we show that LVLM-based models produce markedly more socially biased images than non-LVLM-based models. We introduce a 1,024 prompt benchmark spanning four levels of linguistic complexity and evaluate demographic bias across multiple attributes in a systematic manner. Our analysis identifies system prompts, the predefined instructions guiding LVLMs, as a primary driver of biased behavior. Through decoded intermediate representations, token-probability diagnostics, and embedding-association analyses, we reveal how system prompts encode demographic priors that propagate into image synthesis. To this end, we propose FairPro, a training-free meta-prompting framework that enables LVLMs to self-audit and construct fairness-aware system prompts at test time. Experiments on two LVLM-based T2I models, SANA and Qwen-Image, show that FairPro substantially reduces demographic bias while preserving text-image alignment. We believe our findings provide deeper insight into the central role of system prompts in bias propagation and offer a practical, deployable approach for building more socially responsible T2I systems.

Long-term memory is fundamental for personalized agents capable of accumulating knowledge, reasoning over user experiences, and adapting across time. However, existing memory benchmarks primarily target declarative memory, specifically semantic and episodic types, where all information is explicitly presented in dialogues. In contrast, real-world actions are also governed by non-declarative memory, including habitual and procedural types, and need to be inferred from diverse digital traces. To bridge this gap, we introduce Lifebench, which features densely connected, long-horizon event simulation. It pushes AI agents beyond simple recall, requiring the integration of declarative and non-declarative memory reasoning across diverse and temporally extended contexts. Building such a benchmark presents two key challenges: ensuring data quality and scalability. We maintain data quality by employing real-world priors, including anonymized social surveys, map APIs, and holiday-integrated calendars, thus enforcing fidelity, diversity and behavioral rationality within the dataset. Towards scalability, we draw inspiration from cognitive science and structure events according to their partonomic hierarchy; enabling efficient parallel generation while maintaining global coherence. Performance results show that top-tier, state-of-the-art memory systems reach just 55.2\% accuracy, highlighting the inherent difficulty of long-horizon retrieval and multi-source integration within our proposed benchmark. The dataset and data synthesis code are available at https://github.com/1754955896/LifeBench.

AI psychometrics evaluates AI systems in roles that traditionally require emotional judgment and ethical consideration. Prior work often reuses human trait inventories (Big Five, \hexaco) or ad hoc personas, limiting behavioral realism and domain relevance. We propose a framework that (1) uses situational judgment tests (SJTs) from realistic scenarios to probe domain-specific competencies; (2) integrates industrial-organizational and personality psychology to design sophisticated personas which include behavioral and psychological descriptors, life history, and social and emotional functions; and (3) employs structured generation with population demographic priors and memoir inspired narratives, encoded with Pydantic schemas. In a law enforcement assistant case study, we construct a rich dataset of personas drawn across 8 persona archetypes and SJTs across 11 attributes, and analyze behaviors across subpopulation and scenario slices. The dataset spans 8,500 personas, 4,000 SJTs, and 300,000 responses. We will release the dataset and all code to the public.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed with hierarchical instruction schemes, where certain instructions (e.g., system-level directives) are expected to take precedence over others (e.g., user messages). Yet, we lack a systematic understanding of how effectively these hierarchical control mechanisms work. We introduce a systematic evaluation framework based on constraint prioritization to assess how well LLMs enforce instruction hierarchies. Our experiments across six state-of-the-art LLMs reveal that models struggle with consistent instruction prioritization, even for simple formatting conflicts. We find that the widely-adopted system/user prompt separation fails to establish a reliable instruction hierarchy, and models exhibit strong inherent biases toward certain constraint types regardless of their priority designation. Interestingly, we also find that societal hierarchy framings (e.g., authority, expertise, consensus) show stronger influence on model behavior than system/user roles, suggesting that pretraining-derived social structures function as latent behavioral priors with potentially greater impact than post-training guardrails.

We present a novel prior for tree topology within Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) models. This approach quantifies the hypothetical loss in information and the loss due to complexity associated with choosing the wrong tree structure. The resulting prior distribution is compellingly geared toward sparsity, a critical feature considering BART models' tendency to overfit. Our method incorporates prior knowledge into the distribution via two parameters that govern the tree's depth and balance between its left and right branches. Additionally, we propose a default calibration for these parameters, offering an objective version of the prior. We demonstrate our method's efficacy on both simulated and real datasets.

A new prior is proposed for learning representations of high-level concepts of the kind we manipulate with language. This prior can be combined with other priors in order to help disentangling abstract factors from each other. It is inspired by cognitive neuroscience theories of consciousness, seen as a bottleneck through which just a few elements, after having been selected by attention from a broader pool, are then broadcast and condition further processing, both in perception and decision-making. The set of recently selected elements one becomes aware of is seen as forming a low-dimensional conscious state. This conscious state is combining the few concepts constituting a conscious thought, i.e., what one is immediately conscious of at a particular moment. We claim that this architectural and information-processing constraint corresponds to assumptions about the joint distribution between high-level concepts. To the extent that these assumptions are generally true (and the form of natural language seems consistent with them), they can form a useful prior for representation learning. A low-dimensional thought or conscious state is analogous to a sentence: it involves only a few variables and yet can make a statement with very high probability of being true. This is consistent with a joint distribution (over high-level concepts) which has the form of a sparse factor graph, i.e., where the dependencies captured by each factor of the factor graph involve only very few variables while creating a strong dip in the overall energy function. The consciousness prior also makes it natural to map conscious states to natural language utterances or to express classical AI knowledge in a form similar to facts and rules, albeit capturing uncertainty as well as efficient search mechanisms implemented by attention mechanisms.

Optimizing recommender systems for objectives beyond accuracy, such as diversity, novelty, and personalization, is crucial for long-term user satisfaction. To this end, industrial practitioners have accumulated vast amounts of structured domain knowledge, which we term human priors (e.g., item taxonomies, temporal patterns). This knowledge is typically applied through post-hoc adjustments during ranking or post-ranking. However, this approach remains decoupled from the core model learning, which is particularly undesirable as the industry shifts to end-to-end generative recommendation foundation models. On the other hand, many methods targeting these beyond-accuracy objectives often require architecture-specific modifications and discard these valuable human priors by learning user intent in a fully unsupervised manner. Instead of discarding the human priors accumulated over years of practice, we introduce a backbone-agnostic framework that seamlessly integrates these human priors directly into the end-to-end training of generative recommenders. With lightweight, prior-conditioned adapter heads inspired by efficient LLM decoding strategies, our approach guides the model to disentangle user intent along human-understandable axes (e.g., interaction types, long- vs. short-term interests). We also introduce a hierarchical composition strategy for modeling complex interactions across different prior types. Extensive experiments on three large-scale datasets demonstrate that our method significantly enhances both accuracy and beyond-accuracy objectives. We also show that human priors allow the backbone model to more effectively leverage longer context lengths and larger model sizes.

The Bayesian treatment of neural networks dictates that a prior distribution is specified over their weight and bias parameters. This poses a challenge because modern neural networks are characterized by a large number of parameters, and the choice of these priors has an uncontrolled effect on the induced functional prior, which is the distribution of the functions obtained by sampling the parameters from their prior distribution. We argue that this is a hugely limiting aspect of Bayesian deep learning, and this work tackles this limitation in a practical and effective way. Our proposal is to reason in terms of functional priors, which are easier to elicit, and to "tune" the priors of neural network parameters in a way that they reflect such functional priors. Gaussian processes offer a rigorous framework to define prior distributions over functions, and we propose a novel and robust framework to match their prior with the functional prior of neural networks based on the minimization of their Wasserstein distance. We provide vast experimental evidence that coupling these priors with scalable Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling offers systematically large performance improvements over alternative choices of priors and state-of-the-art approximate Bayesian deep learning approaches. We consider this work a considerable step in the direction of making the long-standing challenge of carrying out a fully Bayesian treatment of neural networks, including convolutional neural networks, a concrete possibility.

Posterior sampling allows the exploitation of prior knowledge of the environment's transition dynamics to improve the sample efficiency of reinforcement learning. The prior is typically specified as a class of parametric distributions, a task that can be cumbersome in practice, often resulting in the choice of uninformative priors. In this work, we propose a novel posterior sampling approach in which the prior is given as a (partial) causal graph over the environment's variables. The latter is often more natural to design, such as listing known causal dependencies between biometric features in a medical treatment study. Specifically, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian procedure, called C-PSRL, simultaneously learning the full causal graph at the higher level and the parameters of the resulting factored dynamics at the lower level. For this procedure, we provide an analysis of its Bayesian regret, which explicitly connects the regret rate with the degree of prior knowledge. Our numerical evaluation conducted in illustrative domains confirms that C-PSRL strongly improves the efficiency of posterior sampling with an uninformative prior while performing close to posterior sampling with the full causal graph.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

Priors are essential for reconstructing images from noisy and/or incomplete measurements. The choice of the prior determines both the quality and uncertainty of recovered images. We propose turning score-based diffusion models into principled image priors ("score-based priors") for analyzing a posterior of images given measurements. Previously, probabilistic priors were limited to handcrafted regularizers and simple distributions. In this work, we empirically validate the theoretically-proven probability function of a score-based diffusion model. We show how to sample from resulting posteriors by using this probability function for variational inference. Our results, including experiments on denoising, deblurring, and interferometric imaging, suggest that score-based priors enable principled inference with a sophisticated, data-driven image prior.

Human priors play a crucial role in efficiently utilizing data in deep learning. However, with the development of large language models (LLMs), there is an increasing emphasis on scaling both model size and data volume, which often diminishes the importance of human priors in data construction. Influenced by these trends, existing Small Language Models (SLMs) mainly rely on web-scraped large-scale training data, neglecting the proper incorporation of human priors. This oversight limits the training efficiency of language models in resource-constrained settings. In this paper, we propose a principle to leverage human priors for data construction. This principle emphasizes achieving high-performance SLMs by training on a concise dataset that accommodates both semantic diversity and data quality consistency, while avoiding benchmark data leakage. Following this principle, we train an SLM named HARE-1.1B. Extensive experiments on large-scale benchmark datasets demonstrate that HARE-1.1B performs favorably against state-of-the-art SLMs, validating the effectiveness of the proposed principle. Additionally, this provides new insights into efficient language model training in resource-constrained environments from the view of human priors.

We consider the problem of recommending relevant content to users of an internet platform in the form of lists of items, called slates. We introduce a variational Bayesian Recurrent Neural Net recommender system that acts on time series of interactions between the internet platform and the user, and which scales to real world industrial situations. The recommender system is tested both online on real users, and on an offline dataset collected from a Norwegian web-based marketplace, FINN.no, that is made public for research. This is one of the first publicly available datasets which includes all the slates that are presented to users as well as which items (if any) in the slates were clicked on. Such a data set allows us to move beyond the common assumption that implicitly assumes that users are considering all possible items at each interaction. Instead we build our likelihood using the items that are actually in the slate, and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of both approaches theoretically and in experiments. We also introduce a hierarchical prior for the item parameters based on group memberships. Both item parameters and user preferences are learned probabilistically. Furthermore, we combine our model with bandit strategies to ensure learning, and introduce `in-slate Thompson Sampling' which makes use of the slates to maximise explorative opportunities. We show experimentally that explorative recommender strategies perform on par or above their greedy counterparts. Even without making use of exploration to learn more effectively, click rates increase simply because of improved diversity in the recommended slates.

As there are now millions of publicly available neural networks, searching and analyzing large model repositories becomes increasingly important. Navigating so many models requires an atlas, but as most models are poorly documented charting such an atlas is challenging. To explore the hidden potential of model repositories, we chart a preliminary atlas representing the documented fraction of Hugging Face. It provides stunning visualizations of the model landscape and evolution. We demonstrate several applications of this atlas including predicting model attributes (e.g., accuracy), and analyzing trends in computer vision models. However, as the current atlas remains incomplete, we propose a method for charting undocumented regions. Specifically, we identify high-confidence structural priors based on dominant real-world model training practices. Leveraging these priors, our approach enables accurate mapping of previously undocumented areas of the atlas. We publicly release our datasets, code, and interactive atlas.

Bayesian predictive inference provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, data efficiency, and robust generalization. However, exact inference is often intractable, and scalable approximations may remain computationally expensive or require restrictive modeling assumptions that degrade predictive performance. Prior-Data Fitted and in-context models have recently emerged as an amortized alternative by learning to map datasets directly to predictive distributions, but existing approaches are tightly coupled to the support of the training prior and lack explicit mechanisms for adapting to new priors at test time, resulting in limited robustness under distribution shift. We introduce a multi-task in-context learning framework for amortized hierarchical Bayesian predictive inference that explicitly represents prior information as a prefix of in-context datasets. A transformer trained on sequences of prior and target tasks learns to adapt its predictions across families of priors. On a suite of evaluations with increasing difficulty, including out-of-meta-distribution priors and priors with high-dimensional latent structures, our method matches oracle Bayesian predictors while being orders of magnitude faster. We further demonstrate its practical relevance on a real-world spatiotemporal temperature prediction benchmark. Code is available at https://github.com/martianmartina/multi-task-bayesian-icl/.

Online group chats are social spaces with local conversational norms that are rarely stated explicitly. The ability and willingness of LLM-based agents to recognize and adapt to these norms remains mostly unexplored. We introduce LoSoNA, a benchmark for local social norm adaptation in multi-party chat. Each scenario gives a subject model a curated group-chat transcript in which non-subject participants demonstrate a hidden local norm, followed by a final elicitor turn that forces a response revealing whether the subject has inferred that norm. We evaluate eight frontier and open-weight models under four prompting conditions that vary how explicitly the model is told to treat the prior conversation as evidence for how it should answer. Naive prompting remains limited for most models; explicit norm-aware prompting helps unevenly, with Gemini 3.1 Pro reaching 84.2% and Claude Fable 5 reaching 81.6%, while several other models show small gains or regressions. LoSoNA contributes to recent calls for evaluating LLM social capabilities by testing whether models can infer local conversational norms from precedent and use them in a one-turn group-chat response.

Networks capture our intuition about relationships in the world. They describe the friendships between Facebook users, interactions in financial markets, and synapses connecting neurons in the brain. These networks are richly structured with cliques of friends, sectors of stocks, and a smorgasbord of cell types that govern how neurons connect. Some networks, like social network friendships, can be directly observed, but in many cases we only have an indirect view of the network through the actions of its constituents and an understanding of how the network mediates that activity. In this work, we focus on the problem of latent network discovery in the case where the observable activity takes the form of a mutually-excitatory point process known as a Hawkes process. We build on previous work that has taken a Bayesian approach to this problem, specifying prior distributions over the latent network structure and a likelihood of observed activity given this network. We extend this work by proposing a discrete-time formulation and developing a computationally efficient stochastic variational inference (SVI) algorithm that allows us to scale the approach to long sequences of observations. We demonstrate our algorithm on the calcium imaging data used in the Chalearn neural connectomics challenge.

We study adaptive querying for learning user-dependent quantities of interest, such as responses to held-out items and psychometric indicators, within tight question budgets. Classical Bayesian design and computerized adaptive testing typically rely on restrictive parametric assumptions or expensive posterior approximations, limiting their use in heterogeneous, high-dimensional, and cold-start settings. We introduce a persona-induced latent variable model that represents a user's state through membership in a finite dictionary of AI personas, each offering response distributions produced by a large language model. This yields expressive priors with closed-form posterior updates and efficient finite-mixture predictions, enabling scalable Bayesian design for sequential item selection. Experiments on synthetic data and WorldValuesBench demonstrate that persona-based posteriors deliver accurate probabilistic predictions and an interpretable adaptive elicitation pipeline.

Powerful priors allow us to perform inference with insufficient information. In this paper, we propose an autoregressive prior for 3D shapes to solve multimodal 3D tasks such as shape completion, reconstruction, and generation. We model the distribution over 3D shapes as a non-sequential autoregressive distribution over a discretized, low-dimensional, symbolic grid-like latent representation of 3D shapes. This enables us to represent distributions over 3D shapes conditioned on information from an arbitrary set of spatially anchored query locations and thus perform shape completion in such arbitrary settings (e.g., generating a complete chair given only a view of the back leg). We also show that the learned autoregressive prior can be leveraged for conditional tasks such as single-view reconstruction and language-based generation. This is achieved by learning task-specific naive conditionals which can be approximated by light-weight models trained on minimal paired data. We validate the effectiveness of the proposed method using both quantitative and qualitative evaluation and show that the proposed method outperforms the specialized state-of-the-art methods trained for individual tasks. The project page with code and video visualizations can be found at https://yccyenchicheng.github.io/AutoSDF/.

Various stuff and things in visual data possess specific traits, which can be learned by deep neural networks and are implicitly represented as the visual prior, e.g., object location and shape, in the model. Such prior potentially impacts many vision tasks. For example, in conditional image synthesis, spatial conditions failing to adhere to the prior can result in visually inaccurate synthetic results. This work aims to explicitly learn the visual prior and enable the customization of sampling. Inspired by advances in language modeling, we propose to learn Visual prior via Generative Pre-Training, dubbed VisorGPT. By discretizing visual locations of objects, e.g., bounding boxes, human pose, and instance masks, into sequences, \our~can model visual prior through likelihood maximization. Besides, prompt engineering is investigated to unify various visual locations and enable customized sampling of sequential outputs from the learned prior. Experimental results demonstrate that \our~can effectively model the visual prior, which can be employed for many vision tasks, such as customizing accurate human pose for conditional image synthesis models like ControlNet. Code will be released at https://github.com/Sierkinhane/VisorGPT.

Population-level behavior in large-language-model (LLM) agents cannot be characterized by single-agent benchmarks. We introduce PV-SST, a peer-voted social-platform testbed, and report a separately frozen, preregistered matched-exposure experiment spanning four topics, four unused seeds, four open-weight model families, and three prespecified larger variants. The experiment comprises 448 trials and 112 complete model-by-topic-by-seed blocks. Relative to a topic-only control, a feed of previous-round peer posts ranked by peer-generated likes increases final-round lexical similarity in both the four-family core panel (paired mean difference +0.0082 TF-IDF cosine units, 95% block-bootstrap CI [0.0043, 0.0121], randomization p=0.000105, n=64 blocks) and the three-variant size extension (+0.0109 [0.0069, 0.0151], p=0.000001, n=48). This contrast bundles peer-post exposure with ranking and therefore does not identify a ranking-only effect. Opposite-side survival falls in the core panel (-3.9 percentage points [-6.8, -1.6], p=0.0068) but not conclusively in the larger variants (-1.0 pp [-3.1, 0.4], p=0.50). Holding adversarial impressions fixed, four distributed sources do not reliably move honest-agent stance more than one source. The preregistered distributed-minus-single contrast is positive but inconclusive in the core panel (+0.057 [-0.009, 0.125], p=0.112) and negative in the larger variants (-0.040 [-0.113, 0.035], p=0.332), failing the prespecified cross-model and cross-topic consistency criterion. Thus the robust result is lexical convergence under the tested peer-ranked feed, not general opinion capture or a general coordination advantage. The study evaluates synthetic LLM-agent populations; it does not estimate effects on people or production platforms.

Understanding and predicting how social beliefs evolve in response to events -- from policy changes to scientific breakthroughs -- remains a fundamental challenge in social science. Given LLMs' commonsense knowledge and social intelligence, we ask: Can LLMs model the dynamics of social beliefs following social events? In this work, we introduce the concept of the Social World Model (SWM), a general framework designed to capture how social beliefs evolve in response to major events. SWM learns state-transition functions for social beliefs by mining temporal patterns in social data and optimizing the evidence lower bound, without the need for explicit human annotations linking events to belief shifts, or for expensive census data. To evaluate SWM, we introduce a benchmark, SWM-bench, derived from real-world prediction markets, specifically Kalshi and Polymarket. SWM-bench includes over 12k data points for social belief prediction tasks spanning diverse domains such as politics, finance, and cryptocurrency. Our experimental results show that SWM significantly outperforms time-series foundation models, achieving state-of-the-art results on Kalshi data and demonstrating competitive performance on Polymarket data, while offering interpretable insights into the underlying mechanisms of social belief dynamics.

A desired closure property in Bayesian probability is that an updated posterior distribution be in the same class of distributions --- say Gaussians --- as the prior distribution. When the updating takes place via a statistical model, one calls the class of prior distributions the `conjugate priors' of the model. This paper gives (1) an abstract formulation of this notion of conjugate prior, using channels, in a graphical language, (2) a simple abstract proof that such conjugate priors yield Bayesian inversions, and (3) a logical description of conjugate priors that highlights the required closure of the priors under updating. The theory is illustrated with several standard examples, also covering multiple updating.

Persona conditioning can be viewed as a behavioral prior for large language models (LLMs) and is often assumed to confer expertise and improve safety in a monotonic manner. However, its effects on high-stakes clinical decision-making remain poorly characterized. We systematically evaluate persona-based control in clinical LLMs, examining how professional roles (e.g., Emergency Department physician, nurse) and interaction styles (bold vs.\ cautious) influence behavior across models and medical tasks. We assess performance on clinical triage and patient-safety tasks using multidimensional evaluations that capture task accuracy, calibration, and safety-relevant risk behavior. We find systematic, context-dependent, and non-monotonic effects: Medical personas improve performance in critical care tasks, yielding gains of up to sim+20% in accuracy and calibration, but degrade performance in primary-care settings by comparable margins. Interaction style modulates risk propensity and sensitivity, but it's highly model-dependent. While aggregated LLM-judge rankings favor medical over non-medical personas in safety-critical cases, we found that human clinicians show moderate agreement on safety compliance (average Cohen's κ= 0.43) but indicate a low confidence in 95.9\% of their responses on reasoning quality. Our work shows that personas function as behavioral priors that introduce context-dependent trade-offs rather than guarantees of safety or expertise. The code is available at https://github.com/rsinghlab/Persona\_Paradox.

In the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, a randomized probability matching policy called Thompson sampling (TS) has shown excellent performance in various reward models. In addition to the empirical performance, TS has been shown to achieve asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds in several models. However, its optimality has been mainly addressed under light-tailed or one-parameter models that belong to exponential families. In this paper, we consider the optimality of TS for the Pareto model that has a heavy tail and is parameterized by two unknown parameters. Specifically, we discuss the optimality of TS with probability matching priors that include the Jeffreys prior and the reference priors. We first prove that TS with certain probability matching priors can achieve the optimal regret bound. Then, we show the suboptimality of TS with other priors, including the Jeffreys and the reference priors. Nevertheless, we find that TS with the Jeffreys and reference priors can achieve the asymptotic lower bound if one uses a truncation procedure. These results suggest carefully choosing noninformative priors to avoid suboptimality and show the effectiveness of truncation procedures in TS-based policies.

In standard large vision-language models (LVLMs) pre-training, the model typically maximizes the joint probability of the caption conditioned on the image via next-token prediction (NTP); however, since only a small subset of caption tokens directly relates to the visual content, this naive NTP unintentionally fits the model to noise and increases the risk of hallucination. We present PRIOR, a simple vision-language pre-training approach that addresses this issue by prioritizing image-related tokens through differential weighting in the NTP loss, drawing from the importance sampling framework. PRIOR introduces a reference model-a text-only large language model (LLM) trained on the captions without image inputs, to weight each token based on its probability for LVLMs training. Intuitively, tokens that are directly related to the visual inputs are harder to predict without the image and thus receive lower probabilities from the text-only reference LLM. During training, we implement a token-specific re-weighting term based on the importance scores to adjust each token's loss. We implement PRIOR in two distinct settings: LVLMs with visual encoders and LVLMs without visual encoders. We observe 19% and 8% average relative improvement, respectively, on several vision-language benchmarks compared to NTP. In addition, PRIOR exhibits superior scaling properties, as demonstrated by significantly higher scaling coefficients, indicating greater potential for performance gains compared to NTP given increasing compute and data.

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

Hand-object interaction (HOI) modeling remains challenging because it requires joint reasoning about hand articulation, object geometry, contact, semantics, and dynamics under severe visual uncertainty. Foundation models introduce transferable prior knowledge learned from large-scale cross-domain data, offering new ways to address these challenges beyond task-specific data and models. However, the rapidly growing literature remains fragmented, and existing studies typically describe these methods simply as ``using large models'' without systematically characterizing what knowledge is introduced, where it enters the HOI pipeline, or which HOI uncertainty it helps reduce. This survey presents the first systematic review of foundation-model priors for HOI. We organize the literature into six HOI tasks spanning reconstruction and generation. More importantly, we establish a taxonomy of eight foundation-model sub-priors grouped into geometric, semantic, and visual families. Geometric priors encompass shape retrieval, shape reconstruction, and spatial reconstruction; semantic priors include semantic grounding and language reasoning; and visual priors cover visual representation, image generation, and video generation. Based on this taxonomy, we systematically analyze how different priors are represented, injected, and adapted across HOI pipelines and tasks. Beyond how foundation models empower HOI, we further examine how HOI-derived knowledge is used in robot learning, including human-data pretraining, human-to-robot skill transfer, and HOI-to-robot data generation. Finally, we summarize datasets and evaluation protocols, and discuss limitations and future directions toward more generalizable HOI systems. To support long-term progress, we curate a live repository that continuously aggregates emerging methods and benchmarks.

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having access to the true posterior is guaranteed to prevent catastrophic forgetting in Bayesian neural networks. To do this we perform sequential Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We propagate the posterior as a prior for new tasks by fitting a density estimator on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samples. We find that this approach fails to prevent catastrophic forgetting demonstrating the difficulty in performing sequential Bayesian inference in neural networks. From there we study simple analytical examples of sequential Bayesian inference and CL and highlight the issue of model misspecification which can lead to sub-optimal continual learning performance despite exact inference. Furthermore, we discuss how task data imbalances can cause forgetting. From these limitations, we argue that we need probabilistic models of the continual learning generative process rather than relying on sequential Bayesian inference over Bayesian neural network weights. In this vein, we also propose a simple baseline called Prototypical Bayesian Continual Learning, which is competitive with state-of-the-art Bayesian continual learning methods on class incremental continual learning vision benchmarks.

Specifying rewards for reinforcement learned (RL) agents is challenging. Preference-based RL (PbRL) mitigates these challenges by inferring a reward from feedback over sets of trajectories. However, the effectiveness of PbRL is limited by the amount of feedback needed to reliably recover the structure of the target reward. We present the PRIor Over Rewards (PRIOR) framework, which incorporates priors about the structure of the reward function and the preference feedback into the reward learning process. Imposing these priors as soft constraints on the reward learning objective reduces the amount of feedback required by half and improves overall reward recovery. Additionally, we demonstrate that using an abstract state space for the computation of the priors further improves the reward learning and the agent's performance.

Currently, it is hard to reap the benefits of deep learning for Bayesian methods, which allow the explicit specification of prior knowledge and accurately capture model uncertainty. We present Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). PFNs leverage large-scale machine learning techniques to approximate a large set of posteriors. The only requirement for PFNs to work is the ability to sample from a prior distribution over supervised learning tasks (or functions). Our method restates the objective of posterior approximation as a supervised classification problem with a set-valued input: it repeatedly draws a task (or function) from the prior, draws a set of data points and their labels from it, masks one of the labels and learns to make probabilistic predictions for it based on the set-valued input of the rest of the data points. Presented with a set of samples from a new supervised learning task as input, PFNs make probabilistic predictions for arbitrary other data points in a single forward propagation, having learned to approximate Bayesian inference. We demonstrate that PFNs can near-perfectly mimic Gaussian processes and also enable efficient Bayesian inference for intractable problems, with over 200-fold speedups in multiple setups compared to current methods. We obtain strong results in very diverse areas such as Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural networks, classification for small tabular data sets, and few-shot image classification, demonstrating the generality of PFNs. Code and trained PFNs are released at https://github.com/automl/TransformersCanDoBayesianInference.

Pass@k is widely used to report the reasoning performance of LLMs, but it often produces unstable and potentially misleading rankings, especially when the number of trials (samples) is limited and computational resources are constrained. We present a principled Bayesian evaluation framework that replaces Pass@k and average accuracy over N trials (avg@N) with posterior estimates of a model's underlying success probability and credible intervals, yielding stable rankings and a transparent decision rule for differences. Evaluation outcomes are modeled as categorical (not just 0/1) with a Dirichlet prior, giving closed-form expressions for the posterior mean and uncertainty of any weighted rubric and enabling the use of prior evidence when appropriate. Theoretically, under a uniform prior, the Bayesian posterior mean is order-equivalent to average accuracy (Pass@1), explaining its empirical robustness while adding principled uncertainty. Empirically, in simulations with known ground-truth success rates and on AIME'24/'25, HMMT'25, and BrUMO'25, the posterior-based procedure achieves faster convergence and greater rank stability than Pass@k and recent variants, enabling reliable comparisons at far smaller sample counts. The framework clarifies when observed gaps are statistically meaningful (non-overlapping credible intervals) versus noise, and it naturally extends to graded, rubric-based evaluations. Together, these results recommend replacing Pass@k for LLM evaluation and ranking with a posterior-based, compute-efficient protocol that unifies binary and non-binary evaluation while making uncertainty explicit. Source code is available at https://github.com/mohsenhariri/scorio

Recent research has demonstrated that feature attribution methods for deep networks can themselves be incorporated into training; these attribution priors optimize for a model whose attributions have certain desirable properties -- most frequently, that particular features are important or unimportant. These attribution priors are often based on attribution methods that are not guaranteed to satisfy desirable interpretability axioms, such as completeness and implementation invariance. Here, we introduce attribution priors to optimize for higher-level properties of explanations, such as smoothness and sparsity, enabled by a fast new attribution method formulation called expected gradients that satisfies many important interpretability axioms. This improves model performance on many real-world tasks where previous attribution priors fail. Our experiments show that the gains from combining higher-level attribution priors with expected gradients attributions are consistent across image, gene expression, and health care data sets. We believe this work motivates and provides the necessary tools to support the widespread adoption of axiomatic attribution priors in many areas of applied machine learning. The implementations and our results have been made freely available to academic communities.

Reconstructing interacting hands from monocular images is indispensable in AR/VR applications. Most existing solutions rely on the accurate localization of each skeleton joint. However, these methods tend to be unreliable due to the severe occlusion and confusing similarity among adjacent hand parts. This also defies human perception because humans can quickly imitate an interaction pattern without localizing all joints. Our key idea is to first construct a two-hand interaction prior and recast the interaction reconstruction task as the conditional sampling from the prior. To expand more interaction states, a large-scale multimodal dataset with physical plausibility is proposed. Then a VAE is trained to further condense these interaction patterns as latent codes in a prior distribution. When looking for image cues that contribute to interaction prior sampling, we propose the interaction adjacency heatmap (IAH). Compared with a joint-wise heatmap for localization, IAH assigns denser visible features to those invisible joints. Compared with an all-in-one visible heatmap, it provides more fine-grained local interaction information in each interaction region. Finally, the correlations between the extracted features and corresponding interaction codes are linked by the ViT module. Comprehensive evaluations on benchmark datasets have verified the effectiveness of this framework. The code and dataset are publicly available at https://github.com/binghui-z/InterPrior_pytorch

Basic human values represent a set of values such as security, independence, success, kindness, and pleasure, which we deem important to our lives. Each of us holds different values with different degrees of significance. Existing studies show that values of a person can be identified from their social network usage. However, the value priority of a person may change over time due to different factors such as life experiences, influence, social structure and technology. Existing studies do not conduct any analysis regarding the change of users' value from the social influence, i.e., group persuasion, form the social media usage. In our research, first, we predict users' value score by the influence of friends from their social media usage. We propose a Bounded Confidence Model (BCM) based value dynamics model from 275 different ego networks in Facebook that predicts how social influence may persuade a person to change their value over time. Then, to predict better, we use particle swarm optimization based hyperparameter tuning technique. We observe that these optimized hyperparameters produce accurate future value score. We also run our approach with different machine learning based methods and find support vector regression (SVR) outperforms other regressor models. By using SVR with the best hyperparameters of BCM model, we find the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE) score 0.00347.

Robots that learn from a few demonstrations often require two forms of generalization. Compositional generalization recombines skills to solve new tasks, and skill generalization lets the learned policy behind each skill work in new situations. The two depend on each other, yet information is lost between composition and the skills it calls. Where a skill works is determined by the structure its policy is trained with, while composition sees the skill only through a separate description, such as a name, an instruction, or a symbolic operator, that omits this structure. Our key idea is to use each policy's structural prior as part of the interface between composition and the skill. A structural prior states what a behavior depends on, for example that a grasp depends only on the gripper's pose relative to the object. Built into training, it shapes where the policy generalizes; stated in language, it tells composition where the policy applies. We instantiate this idea in Agent Priors-guided Policy Learning (APPL). A construction agent segments complete demonstrations into reusable skills, proposes several structural priors for each skill, and trains and verifies one policy per prior. A runtime agent then selects among these prior-specific policies and composes them toward new task goals using their interfaces. Across MetaWorld and long-horizon ManiSkill tasks, APPL improves out-of-distribution skill generalization and enables previously unseen skill compositions; ablating the interface information substantially reduces performance. These results support the use of training-time structural assumptions as a bridge between skill learning and skill composition.

Modeling latent variables with priors and hyperpriors is an essential problem in variational image compression. Formally, trade-off between rate and distortion is handled well if priors and hyperpriors precisely describe latent variables. Current practices only adopt univariate priors and process each variable individually. However, we find inter-correlations and intra-correlations exist when observing latent variables in a vectorized perspective. These findings reveal visual redundancies to improve rate-distortion performance and parallel processing ability to speed up compression. This encourages us to propose a novel vectorized prior. Specifically, a multivariate Gaussian mixture is proposed with means and covariances to be estimated. Then, a novel probabilistic vector quantization is utilized to effectively approximate means, and remaining covariances are further induced to a unified mixture and solved by cascaded estimation without context models involved. Furthermore, codebooks involved in quantization are extended to multi-codebooks for complexity reduction, which formulates an efficient compression procedure. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets against state-of-the-art indicate our model has better rate-distortion performance and an impressive 3.18times compression speed up, giving us the ability to perform real-time, high-quality variational image compression in practice. Our source code is publicly available at https://github.com/xiaosu-zhu/McQuic.

Learning socially-aware motion representations is at the core of recent advances in multi-agent problems, such as human motion forecasting and robot navigation in crowds. Despite promising progress, existing representations learned with neural networks still struggle to generalize in closed-loop predictions (e.g., output colliding trajectories). This issue largely arises from the non-i.i.d. nature of sequential prediction in conjunction with ill-distributed training data. Intuitively, if the training data only comes from human behaviors in safe spaces, i.e., from "positive" examples, it is difficult for learning algorithms to capture the notion of "negative" examples like collisions. In this work, we aim to address this issue by explicitly modeling negative examples through self-supervision: (i) we introduce a social contrastive loss that regularizes the extracted motion representation by discerning the ground-truth positive events from synthetic negative ones; (ii) we construct informative negative samples based on our prior knowledge of rare but dangerous circumstances. Our method substantially reduces the collision rates of recent trajectory forecasting, behavioral cloning and reinforcement learning algorithms, outperforming state-of-the-art methods on several benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/vita-epfl/social-nce.

This paper presents a Bayesian nonparametric latent feature model specially suitable for exploratory analysis of high-dimensional count data. We perform a non-negative doubly sparse matrix factorization that has two main advantages: not only we are able to better approximate the row input distributions, but the inferred topics are also easier to interpret. By combining the three-parameter and restricted Indian buffet processes into a single prior, we increase the model flexibility, allowing for a full spectrum of sparse solutions in the latent space. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach in the analysis of countries' economic structure. Compared to other approaches, empirical results show our model's ability to give easy-to-interpret information and better capture the underlying sparsity structure of data.

In this work, we initiate the idea of using denoising diffusion models to learn priors for online decision making problems. Our special focus is on the meta-learning for bandit framework, with the goal of learning a strategy that performs well across bandit tasks of a same class. To this end, we train a diffusion model that learns the underlying task distribution and combine Thompson sampling with the learned prior to deal with new tasks at test time. Our posterior sampling algorithm is designed to carefully balance between the learned prior and the noisy observations that come from the learner's interaction with the environment. To capture realistic bandit scenarios, we also propose a novel diffusion model training procedure that trains even from incomplete and/or noisy data, which could be of independent interest. Finally, our extensive experimental evaluations clearly demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

Knowledge graph-based retrieval-augmented generation seeks to mitigate hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs) caused by insufficient or outdated knowledge. However, existing methods often fail to fully exploit the prior knowledge embedded in knowledge graphs (KGs), particularly their structural information and explicit or implicit constraints. The former can enhance the faithfulness of LLMs' reasoning, while the latter can improve the reliability of response generation. Motivated by these, we propose a trustworthy reasoning framework, termed Deliberation over Priors (DP), which sufficiently utilizes the priors contained in KGs. Specifically, DP adopts a progressive knowledge distillation strategy that integrates structural priors into LLMs through a combination of supervised fine-tuning and Kahneman-Tversky optimization, thereby improving the faithfulness of relation path generation. Furthermore, our framework employs a reasoning-introspection strategy, which guides LLMs to perform refined reasoning verification based on extracted constraint priors, ensuring the reliability of response generation. Extensive experiments on three benchmark datasets demonstrate that DP achieves new state-of-the-art performance, especially a Hit@1 improvement of 13% on the ComplexWebQuestions dataset, and generates highly trustworthy responses. We also conduct various analyses to verify its flexibility and practicality. The code is available at https://github.com/reml-group/Deliberation-on-Priors.

With the overwhelming amount of data available both on and offline today, recommender systems have become much needed to help users find items tailored to their interests. When social network information exists there are methods that utilize this information to make better recommendations, however the methods are often clunky with complex architectures and training procedures. Furthermore many of the existing methods utilize graph neural networks which are notoriously difficult to train. To address this, we propose Socially-aware Temporally caUsal Decoder recommender sYstems (STUDY). STUDY does joint inference over groups of users who are adjacent in the social network graph using a single forward pass of a modified transformer decoder network. We test our method in a school-based educational content setting, using classroom structure to define social networks. Our method outperforms both social and sequential methods while maintaining the design simplicity of a single homogeneous network that models all interactions in the data. We also carry out ablation studies to understand the drivers of our performance gains and find that our model depends on leveraging a social network structure that effectively models the similarities in user behavior.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, where rare but severe failures can result in irreversible harm. However, prevailing evaluation benchmarks often reduce complex social risk to mean-centered scalar scores, thereby obscuring distributional structure, cross-dimensional interactions, and worst-case behavior. This paper introduces Social Harm Analysis via Risk Profiles (SHARP), a framework for multidimensional, distribution-aware evaluation of social harm. SHARP models harm as a multivariate random variable and integrates explicit decomposition into bias, fairness, ethics, and epistemic reliability with a union-of-failures aggregation reparameterized as additive cumulative log-risk. The framework further employs risk-sensitive distributional statistics, with Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR95) as a primary metric, to characterize worst-case model behavior. Application of SHARP to eleven frontier LLMs, evaluated on a fixed corpus of n=901 socially sensitive prompts, reveals that models with similar average risk can exhibit more than twofold differences in tail exposure and volatility. Across models, dimension-wise marginal tail behavior varies systematically across harm dimensions, with bias exhibiting the strongest tail severities, epistemic and fairness risks occupying intermediate regimes, and ethical misalignment consistently lower; together, these patterns reveal heterogeneous, model-dependent failure structures that scalar benchmarks conflate. These findings indicate that responsible evaluation and governance of LLMs require moving beyond scalar averages toward multidimensional, tail-sensitive risk profiling.

We present an approach to learn general robot manipulation priors from 3D hand-object interaction trajectories. We build a framework to use in-the-wild videos to generate sensorimotor robot trajectories. We do so by lifting both the human hand and the manipulated object in a shared 3D space and retargeting human motions to robot actions. Generative modeling on this data gives us a task-agnostic base policy. This policy captures a general yet flexible manipulation prior. We empirically demonstrate that finetuning this policy, with both reinforcement learning (RL) and behavior cloning (BC), enables sample-efficient adaptation to downstream tasks and simultaneously improves robustness and generalizability compared to prior approaches. Qualitative experiments are available at: https://hgaurav2k.github.io/hop/.

This paper calls on the research community not only to investigate how human biases are inherited by large language models (LLMs) but also to explore how these biases in LLMs can be leveraged to make society's "unwritten code" - such as implicit stereotypes and heuristics - visible and accessible for critique. We introduce a conceptual framework through a case study in science: uncovering hidden rules in peer review - the factors that reviewers care about but rarely state explicitly due to normative scientific expectations. The idea of the framework is to push LLMs to speak out their heuristics through generating self-consistent hypotheses - why one paper appeared stronger in reviewer scoring - among paired papers submitted to 45 computer science conferences, while iteratively searching deeper hypotheses from remaining pairs where existing hypotheses cannot explain. We observed that LLMs' normative priors about the internal characteristics of good science extracted from their self-talk, e.g. theoretical rigor, were systematically updated toward posteriors that emphasize storytelling about external connections, such as how the work is positioned and connected within and across literatures. This shift reveals the primacy of scientific myths about intrinsic properties driving scientific excellence rather than extrinsic contextualization and storytelling that influence conceptions of relevance and significance. Human reviewers tend to explicitly reward aspects that moderately align with LLMs' normative priors (correlation = 0.49) but avoid articulating contextualization and storytelling posteriors in their review comments (correlation = -0.14), despite giving implicit reward to them with positive scores. We discuss the broad applicability of the framework, leveraging LLMs as diagnostic tools to surface the tacit codes underlying human society, enabling more precisely targeted responsible AI.

We present TabPFN, a trained Transformer that can do supervised classification for small tabular datasets in less than a second, needs no hyperparameter tuning and is competitive with state-of-the-art classification methods. TabPFN performs in-context learning (ICL), it learns to make predictions using sequences of labeled examples (x, f(x)) given in the input, without requiring further parameter updates. TabPFN is fully entailed in the weights of our network, which accepts training and test samples as a set-valued input and yields predictions for the entire test set in a single forward pass. TabPFN is a Prior-Data Fitted Network (PFN) and is trained offline once, to approximate Bayesian inference on synthetic datasets drawn from our prior. This prior incorporates ideas from causal reasoning: It entails a large space of structural causal models with a preference for simple structures. On the 18 datasets in the OpenML-CC18 suite that contain up to 1 000 training data points, up to 100 purely numerical features without missing values, and up to 10 classes, we show that our method clearly outperforms boosted trees and performs on par with complex state-of-the-art AutoML systems with up to 230times speedup. This increases to a 5 700times speedup when using a GPU. We also validate these results on an additional 67 small numerical datasets from OpenML. We provide all our code, the trained TabPFN, an interactive browser demo and a Colab notebook at https://github.com/automl/TabPFN.

In this paper we develop a dynamic form of Bayesian optimization for machine learning models with the goal of rapidly finding good hyperparameter settings. Our method uses the partial information gained during the training of a machine learning model in order to decide whether to pause training and start a new model, or resume the training of a previously-considered model. We specifically tailor our method to machine learning problems by developing a novel positive-definite covariance kernel to capture a variety of training curves. Furthermore, we develop a Gaussian process prior that scales gracefully with additional temporal observations. Finally, we provide an information-theoretic framework to automate the decision process. Experiments on several common machine learning models show that our approach is extremely effective in practice.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) were recently proposed as a new paradigm for machine learning. Instead of training the network to an observed training set, a fixed model is pre-trained offline on small, simulated training sets from a variety of tasks. The pre-trained model is then used to infer class probabilities in-context on fresh training sets with arbitrary size and distribution. Empirically, PFNs achieve state-of-the-art performance on tasks with similar size to the ones used in pre-training. Surprisingly, their accuracy further improves when passed larger data sets during inference. This article establishes a theoretical foundation for PFNs and illuminates the statistical mechanisms governing their behavior. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian ideas, a purely frequentistic interpretation of PFNs as pre-tuned, but untrained predictors explains their behavior. A predictor's variance vanishes if its sensitivity to individual training samples does and the bias vanishes only if it is appropriately localized around the test feature. The transformer architecture used in current PFN implementations ensures only the former. These findings shall prove useful for designing architectures with favorable empirical behavior.

As machine learning has moved towards leveraging large models as priors for downstream tasks, the community has debated the right form of prior for solving reinforcement learning (RL) problems. If one were to try to prefetch as much computation as possible, they would attempt to learn a prior over the policies for some yet-to-be-determined reward function. Recent work (forward-backward (FB) representation learning) has tried this, arguing that an unsupervised representation learning procedure can enable optimal control over arbitrary rewards without further fine-tuning. However, FB's training objective and learning behavior remain mysterious. In this paper, we demystify FB by clarifying when such representations can exist, what its objective optimizes, and how it converges in practice. We draw connections with rank matching, fitted Q-evaluation, and contraction mapping. Our analysis suggests a simplified unsupervised pre-training method for RL that, instead of enabling optimal control, performs one step of policy improvement. We call our proposed method one-step forward-backward representation learning (one-step FB). Experiments in didactic settings, as well as in 10 state-based and image-based continuous control domains, demonstrate that one-step FB converges to errors 10^5 smaller and improves zero-shot performance by +24% on average. Our project website is available at https://chongyi-zheng.github.io/onestep-fb.

Social computing prototypes probe the social behaviors that may arise in an envisioned system design. This prototyping practice is currently limited to recruiting small groups of people. Unfortunately, many challenges do not arise until a system is populated at a larger scale. Can a designer understand how a social system might behave when populated, and make adjustments to the design before the system falls prey to such challenges? We introduce social simulacra, a prototyping technique that generates a breadth of realistic social interactions that may emerge when a social computing system is populated. Social simulacra take as input the designer's description of a community's design -- goal, rules, and member personas -- and produce as output an instance of that design with simulated behavior, including posts, replies, and anti-social behaviors. We demonstrate that social simulacra shift the behaviors that they generate appropriately in response to design changes, and that they enable exploration of "what if?" scenarios where community members or moderators intervene. To power social simulacra, we contribute techniques for prompting a large language model to generate thousands of distinct community members and their social interactions with each other; these techniques are enabled by the observation that large language models' training data already includes a wide variety of positive and negative behavior on social media platforms. In evaluations, we show that participants are often unable to distinguish social simulacra from actual community behavior and that social computing designers successfully refine their social computing designs when using social simulacra.

"Read the room" is a significant social reasoning capability in human daily life. Humans can infer others' mental states from subtle social cues. Previous social reasoning tasks and datasets lack complexity (e.g., simple scenes, basic interactions, incomplete mental state variables, single-step reasoning, etc.) and fall far short of the challenges present in real-life social interactions. In this paper, we contribute a valuable, high-quality, and comprehensive video dataset named R^3-VQA with precise and fine-grained annotations of social events and mental states (i.e., belief, intent, desire, and emotion) as well as corresponding social causal chains in complex social scenarios. Moreover, we include human-annotated and model-generated QAs. Our task R^3-VQA includes three aspects: Social Event Understanding, Mental State Estimation, and Social Causal Reasoning. As a benchmark, we comprehensively evaluate the social reasoning capabilities and consistencies of current state-of-the-art large vision-language models (LVLMs). Comprehensive experiments show that (i) LVLMs are still far from human-level consistent social reasoning in complex social scenarios; (ii) Theory of Mind (ToM) prompting can help LVLMs perform better on social reasoning tasks. We provide some of our dataset and codes in supplementary material and will release our full dataset and codes upon acceptance.

We present a new challenge to examine whether large language models understand social norms. In contrast to existing datasets, our dataset requires a fundamental understanding of social norms to solve. Our dataset features the largest set of social norm skills, consisting of 402 skills and 12,383 questions covering a wide set of social norms ranging from opinions and arguments to culture and laws. We design our dataset according to the K-12 curriculum. This enables the direct comparison of the social understanding of large language models to humans, more specifically, elementary students. While prior work generates nearly random accuracy on our benchmark, recent large language models such as GPT3.5-Turbo and LLaMA2-Chat are able to improve the performance significantly, only slightly below human performance. We then propose a multi-agent framework based on large language models to improve the models' ability to understand social norms. This method further improves large language models to be on par with humans. Given the increasing adoption of large language models in real-world applications, our finding is particularly important and presents a unique direction for future improvements.

We present InterHandGen, a novel framework that learns the generative prior of two-hand interaction. Sampling from our model yields plausible and diverse two-hand shapes in close interaction with or without an object. Our prior can be incorporated into any optimization or learning methods to reduce ambiguity in an ill-posed setup. Our key observation is that directly modeling the joint distribution of multiple instances imposes high learning complexity due to its combinatorial nature. Thus, we propose to decompose the modeling of joint distribution into the modeling of factored unconditional and conditional single instance distribution. In particular, we introduce a diffusion model that learns the single-hand distribution unconditional and conditional to another hand via conditioning dropout. For sampling, we combine anti-penetration and classifier-free guidance to enable plausible generation. Furthermore, we establish the rigorous evaluation protocol of two-hand synthesis, where our method significantly outperforms baseline generative models in terms of plausibility and diversity. We also demonstrate that our diffusion prior can boost the performance of two-hand reconstruction from monocular in-the-wild images, achieving new state-of-the-art accuracy.

Uncertainty quantification is essential when dealing with ill-conditioned inverse problems due to the inherent nonuniqueness of the solution. Bayesian approaches allow us to determine how likely an estimation of the unknown parameters is via formulating the posterior distribution. Unfortunately, it is often not possible to formulate a prior distribution that precisely encodes our prior knowledge about the unknown. Furthermore, adherence to handcrafted priors may greatly bias the outcome of the Bayesian analysis. To address this issue, we propose to use the functional form of a randomly initialized convolutional neural network as an implicit structured prior, which is shown to promote natural images and excludes images with unnatural noise. In order to incorporate the model uncertainty into the final estimate, we sample the posterior distribution using stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics and perform Bayesian model averaging on the obtained samples. Our synthetic numerical experiment verifies that deep priors combined with Bayesian model averaging are able to partially circumvent imaging artifacts and reduce the risk of overfitting in the presence of extreme noise. Finally, we present pointwise variance of the estimates as a measure of uncertainty, which coincides with regions that are more difficult to image.

These names do not exist. Elena Vasquez and Marcus Chen have appeared as volcano experts, astronauts, thriller protagonists, podcast hosts, and academic co-authors across hundreds of independently produced AI-generated documents, never having lived. We show that large language models do not merely default to high-probability individual names when generating fictional experts: they produce correlated character ensembles, pairs and trios whose co-occurrence rates far exceed chance and are consistent across independent generations. These priors are model-family-specific (Claude: Elena Vasquez + Marcus Chen + Amara Okafor; Gemini: Aris Thorne + Lena Petrova; GPT: Elara Voss with no fixed partner), version-specific, and actively suppressed at model release boundaries, leaving dateable behavioral fingerprints in the content they produced. We document a downstream consequence at scale. On Zenodo, a CERN-operated repository that mints real DataCite DOIs, we identify 1,655 ghost-authored records claiming nonexistent journals with fabricated publication dates: server-side DataCite timestamps prove deliberate backdating, and 991 records were registered in a single month; these carry real DOIs registered in DataCite, making them harvestable by any scholarly aggregator that ingests DOI metadata. Ghost names additionally appear on ResearchGate forming synthetic research groups with collaborators drawn from multiple model families; publication dates on these records provide a reliable temporal proxy for model deployment windows.

Pretraining on noisy, internet-scale datasets has been heavily studied as a technique for training models with broad, general capabilities for text, images, and other modalities. However, for many sequential decision domains such as robotics, video games, and computer use, publicly available data does not contain the labels required to train behavioral priors in the same way. We extend the internet-scale pretraining paradigm to sequential decision domains through semi-supervised imitation learning wherein agents learn to act by watching online unlabeled videos. Specifically, we show that with a small amount of labeled data we can train an inverse dynamics model accurate enough to label a huge unlabeled source of online data -- here, online videos of people playing Minecraft -- from which we can then train a general behavioral prior. Despite using the native human interface (mouse and keyboard at 20Hz), we show that this behavioral prior has nontrivial zero-shot capabilities and that it can be fine-tuned, with both imitation learning and reinforcement learning, to hard-exploration tasks that are impossible to learn from scratch via reinforcement learning. For many tasks our models exhibit human-level performance, and we are the first to report computer agents that can craft diamond tools, which can take proficient humans upwards of 20 minutes (24,000 environment actions) of gameplay to accomplish.

Can a diffusion model trained on bedrooms recover human faces? Diffusion models are widely used as priors for inverse problems, but standard approaches usually assume a high-fidelity model trained on data that closely match the unknown signal. In practice, one often must use a mismatched or low-fidelity diffusion prior. Surprisingly, these weak priors often perform nearly as well as full-strength, in-domain baselines. We study when and why inverse solvers are robust to weak diffusion priors. Through extensive experiments, we find that weak priors succeed when measurements are highly informative (e.g., many observed pixels), and we identify regimes where they fail. Our theory, based on Bayesian consistency, gives conditions under which high-dimensional measurements make the posterior concentrate near the true signal. These results provide a principled justification on when weak diffusion priors can be used reliably.

Social skills such as negotiation and leadership are crucial for personal and professional success in today's interconnected world. However, scalable and effective training remains a significant challenge due to the scarcity of expert coaching. In this work, we introduce SocialCoach, an LLM-powered agentic tutoring system for personalized social skill learning. SocialCoach constructs a theory-to-practice corpus of traceable strategies, cases, and practice scenarios, and uses this corpus for both scheduling and reflective tutoring. We formulate social practice personalization as cold-start, retrieval-constrained sequential practice scheduling. Given a learner profile, simulated proficiency state, and observed practice history, a policy produces structured prescriptions that are realized through corpus retrieval. To enhance scheduling effectiveness, we optimize complete pathways with trajectory-level GRPO using rubric-judge based pairwise preferences. Additionally, we instantiate the scheduling approach in a deployed platform with goal-driven practice and knowledge-grounded reflective tutoring. Finally, in the synthetic cold-start setting, experiment results show that SocialCoach achieves higher pathway-quality ratings than baselines in scheduling and tutoring quality. We also conduct human studies to demonstrate its usefulness for real-world social skill learning.

Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) in simulation often results in brittle and unrealistic learning outcomes. To push the agent towards more desirable solutions, prior information can be injected in the learning process through, for instance, reward shaping, expert data, or motion primitives. We propose an additional inductive bias for robot learning: latent actions learned from expert demonstration as priors in the action space. We show that these action priors can be learned from only a single open-loop gait cycle using a simple autoencoder. Using these latent action priors combined with established style rewards for imitation in DRL achieves above expert demonstration level of performance and leads to more desirable gaits. Further, action priors substantially improve the performance on transfer tasks, even leading to gait transitions for higher target speeds. Videos and code are available at https://sites.google.com/view/latent-action-priors.

Multi-agent interactions, such as communication, teaching, and bluffing, often rely on higher-order social inference, i.e., understanding how others infer oneself. Such intricate reasoning can be effectively modeled through nested multi-agent reasoning. Nonetheless, the computational complexity escalates exponentially with each level of reasoning, posing a significant challenge. However, humans effortlessly perform complex social inferences as part of their daily lives. To bridge the gap between human-like inference capabilities and computational limitations, we propose a novel approach: leveraging neural networks to amortize high-order social inference, thereby expediting nested multi-agent reasoning. We evaluate our method in two challenging multi-agent interaction domains. The experimental results demonstrate that our method is computationally efficient while exhibiting minimal degradation in accuracy.

Prompt-based classifiers are an attractive approach for zero-shot classification. However, the precise choice of the prompt template and label words can largely influence performance, with semantically equivalent settings often showing notable performance difference. This discrepancy can be partly attributed to word biases, where the classifier may be biased towards classes. To address this problem, it is possible to optimise classification thresholds on a labelled data set, however, this mitigates some of the advantages of prompt-based classifiers. This paper instead approaches this problem by examining the expected marginal probabilities of the classes. Here, probabilities are reweighted to have a uniform prior over classes, in an unsupervised fashion. Further, we draw a theoretical connection between the class priors and the language models' word prior, and offer the ability to set a threshold in a zero-resource fashion. We show that matching class priors correlates strongly with the oracle upper bound performance and demonstrate large consistent performance gains for prompt settings over a range of NLP tasks.

The COVID-19 pandemic has accentuated socioeconomic disparities across various racial and ethnic groups in the United States. While previous studies have utilized traditional survey methods like the Household Pulse Survey (HPS) to elucidate these disparities, this paper explores the role of social media platforms in both highlighting and addressing these challenges. Drawing from real-time data sourced from Twitter, we analyzed language patterns related to four major types of adverse experiences: loss of employment income (LI), food scarcity (FS), housing insecurity (HI), and unmet needs for mental health services (UM). We first formulate a sparsity optimization problem that extracts low-level language features from social media data sources. Second, we propose novel constraints on feature similarity exploiting prior knowledge about the similarity of the language patterns among the adverse experiences. The proposed problem is challenging to solve due to the non-convexity objective and non-smoothness penalties. We develop an algorithm based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) framework to solve the proposed formulation. Extensive experiments and comparisons to other models on real-world social media and the detection of adverse experiences justify the efficacy of our model.

We seek to understand fundamental tradeoffs between the accuracy of prior information that a learner has on a given problem and its learning performance. We introduce the notion of prioritized risk, which differs from traditional notions of minimax and Bayes risk by allowing us to study such fundamental tradeoffs in settings where reality does not necessarily conform to the learner's prior. We present a general reduction-based approach for extending classical minimax lower-bound techniques in order to lower bound the prioritized risk for statistical estimation problems. We also introduce a novel generalization of Fano's inequality (which may be of independent interest) for lower bounding the prioritized risk in more general settings involving unbounded losses. We illustrate the ability of our framework to provide insights into tradeoffs between prior information and learning performance for problems in estimation, regression, and reinforcement learning.

Data-driven motion priors that can guide agents toward producing naturalistic behaviors play a pivotal role in creating life-like virtual characters. Adversarial imitation learning has been a highly effective method for learning motion priors from reference motion data. However, adversarial priors, with few exceptions, need to be retrained for each new controller, thereby limiting their reusability and necessitating the retention of the reference motion data when applied to downstream tasks. In this work, we present Score-Matching Motion Priors (SMP), which leverages pre-trained motion diffusion models and score distillation sampling (SDS) to create reusable task-agnostic motion priors. SMPs can be pre-trained on a motion dataset, independent of any control policy or task. Once trained, SMPs can be kept frozen and reused as general-purpose reward functions to train new policies to produce naturalistic behaviors for downstream tasks. We show that a general motion prior trained on large-scale datasets can be repurposed into a variety of style-specific priors. Furthermore, SMP can compose different styles to synthesize new styles not present in the original dataset. Our method can create reusable and modular motion priors that produce high-quality motions comparable to state-of-the-art adversarial imitation learning methods. In our experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of SMP across a diverse suite of control tasks with physically simulated humanoid characters. Video available at https://youtu.be/jBA2tWk6vzU

LLMs are increasingly deployed as proxies for human study participants in social science experiments, yet the fidelity of this practice has rarely been tested directly. We test whether six LLMs can simulate individual human belief updates, comparing LLM outputs 1-to-1 against ground truth data from 391 UK participants on Prolific, who updated their stances on three discussion topics after reading Reddit comments. Each participant was simulated by an LLM conditioned on a persona derived from their demographic and personality trait data. We find that some LLMs (Qwen3-32B and GPT-5-Mini) can match the human post-stance distribution, but only when given participants' actual initial stances. All six models fail to simulate initial stances themselves and to produce faithful belief updates from self-generated stances. Three systematic biases emerge across all models: overrepresentation of neutral positions, more frequent but smaller belief shifts than humans, and a failure to rank comments by convincingness. Demographic and personality trait personas had no consistent effect on fidelity. LLM simulations of human belief dynamics are only reliable when grounded in realistic starting conditions, that current multi-round social media simulations rarely provide.

We introduce and study the problem of detecting whether an agent is updating their prior beliefs given new evidence in an optimal way that is Bayesian, or whether they are biased towards their own prior. In our model, biased agents form posterior beliefs that are a convex combination of their prior and the Bayesian posterior, where the more biased an agent is, the closer their posterior is to the prior. Since we often cannot observe the agent's beliefs directly, we take an approach inspired by information design. Specifically, we measure an agent's bias by designing a signaling scheme and observing the actions they take in response to different signals, assuming that they are maximizing their own expected utility; our goal is to detect bias with a minimum number of signals. Our main results include a characterization of scenarios where a single signal suffices and a computationally efficient algorithm to compute optimal signaling schemes.

Generating realistic and physically plausible 3D Human-Object Interactions (HOI) remains a key challenge in motion generation. One primary reason is that describing these physical constraints with words alone is difficult. To address this limitation, we propose a new paradigm: extracting rich interaction priors from easily accessible 2D images. Specifically, we introduce ViHOI, a novel framework that enables diffusion-based generative models to leverage rich, task-specific priors from 2D images to enhance generation quality. We utilize a large Vision-Language Model (VLM) as a powerful prior-extraction engine and adopt a layer-decoupled strategy to obtain visual and textual priors. Concurrently, we design a Q-Former-based adapter that compresses the VLM's high-dimensional features into compact prior tokens, which significantly facilitates the conditional training of our diffusion model. Our framework is trained on motion-rendered images from the dataset to ensure strict semantic alignment between visual inputs and motion sequences. During inference, it leverages reference images synthesized by a text-to-image generation model to improve generalization to unseen objects and interaction categories. Experimental results demonstrate that ViHOI achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming existing methods across multiple benchmarks and demonstrating superior generalization.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly capable of simulating human behavior, offering cost-effective ways to estimate user responses during the early phases of survey design. While previous studies have examined whether models can reflect individual opinions or attitudes, we argue that a higher-order binding of virtual personas requires successfully approximating not only the opinions of a user as an identified member of a group, but also the nuanced ways in which that user perceives and evaluates those outside the group. In particular, faithfully simulating how humans perceive different social groups is critical for applying LLMs to various political science studies, including timely topics on polarization dynamics, inter-group conflict, and democratic backsliding. To this end, we propose a novel methodology for constructing virtual personas with synthetic user ``backstories" generated as extended, multi-turn interview transcripts. Our generated backstories are longer, rich in detail, and consistent in authentically describing a singular individual, compared to previous methods. We show that virtual personas conditioned on our backstories closely replicate human response distributions (up to an 87\% improvement as measured by Wasserstein Distance) and produce effect sizes that closely match those observed in the original studies. Altogether, our work extends the applicability of LLMs beyond estimating individual self-opinions, enabling their use in a broader range of human studies.

We introduce ELITE, an Efficient Gaussian head avatar synthesis from a monocular video via Learned Initialization and TEst-time generative adaptation. Prior works rely either on a 3D data prior or a 2D generative prior to compensate for missing visual cues in monocular videos. However, 3D data prior methods often struggle to generalize in-the-wild, while 2D generative prior methods are computationally heavy and prone to identity hallucination. We identify a complementary synergy between these two priors and design an efficient system that achieves high-fidelity animatable avatar synthesis with strong in-the-wild generalization. Specifically, we introduce a feed-forward Mesh2Gaussian Prior Model (MGPM) that enables fast initialization of a Gaussian avatar. To further bridge the domain gap at test time, we design a test-time generative adaptation stage, leveraging both real and synthetic images as supervision. Unlike previous full diffusion denoising strategies that are slow and hallucination-prone, we propose a rendering-guided single-step diffusion enhancer that restores missing visual details, grounded on Gaussian avatar renderings. Our experiments demonstrate that ELITE produces visually superior avatars to prior works, even for challenging expressions, while achieving 60x faster synthesis than the 2D generative prior method.

In this paper, we present a novel 3D head avatar creation approach capable of generalizing from few-shot in-the-wild data with high-fidelity and animatable robustness. Given the underconstrained nature of this problem, incorporating prior knowledge is essential. Therefore, we propose a framework comprising prior learning and avatar creation phases. The prior learning phase leverages 3D head priors derived from a large-scale multi-view dynamic dataset, and the avatar creation phase applies these priors for few-shot personalization. Our approach effectively captures these priors by utilizing a Gaussian Splatting-based auto-decoder network with part-based dynamic modeling. Our method employs identity-shared encoding with personalized latent codes for individual identities to learn the attributes of Gaussian primitives. During the avatar creation phase, we achieve fast head avatar personalization by leveraging inversion and fine-tuning strategies. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our model effectively exploits head priors and successfully generalizes them to few-shot personalization, achieving photo-realistic rendering quality, multi-view consistency, and stable animation.

To develop socially intelligent AI, existing approaches typically model human behavioral dimensions (e.g., affective, cognitive, or social attributes) in isolation. Although useful, task-specific modeling often increases training costs and limits generalization across behavioral settings. Recent reasoning RL methods facilitate training a single unified model across multiple behavioral tasks, but do not explicitly address learning across different heterogeneous behavioral data. To address this gap, we introduce Heterogeneity-Aware Relative Policy Optimization (HARPO), an RL method that balances leaning across heterogeneous tasks and samples. This is achieved by modulating advantages to ensure that no single task or sample carries disproportionate influence during policy optimization. Using HARPO, we develop and release Omnisapiens-7B 2.0, a foundation model for social behavior processing. Relative to existing behavioral foundation models, Omnisapiens-7B 2.0 achieves the strongest performance across behavioral tasks, with gains of up to +16.85% and +9.37% on multitask and held-out settings respectively, while producing more explicit and robust reasoning traces. We also validate HARPO against recent RL methods, where it achieves the most consistently strong performance across behavioral tasks.

Structured variational autoencoders (SVAEs) combine probabilistic graphical model priors on latent variables, deep neural networks to link latent variables to observed data, and structure-exploiting algorithms for approximate posterior inference. These models are particularly appealing for sequential data, where the prior can capture temporal dependencies. However, despite their conceptual elegance, SVAEs have proven difficult to implement, and more general approaches have been favored in practice. Here, we revisit SVAEs using modern machine learning tools and demonstrate their advantages over more general alternatives in terms of both accuracy and efficiency. First, we develop a modern implementation for hardware acceleration, parallelization, and automatic differentiation of the message passing algorithms at the core of the SVAE. Second, we show that by exploiting structure in the prior, the SVAE learns more accurate models and posterior distributions, which translate into improved performance on prediction tasks. Third, we show how the SVAE can naturally handle missing data, and we leverage this ability to develop a novel, self-supervised training approach. Altogether, these results show that the time is ripe to revisit structured variational autoencoders.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) require scalable sampling algorithms to approximate posterior distributions over parameters. Existing stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) methods are highly sensitive to the choice of stepsize and adaptive variants such as pSGLD typically fail to sample the correct invariant measure without addition of a costly divergence correction term. In this work, we build on the recently proposed `SamAdams' framework for timestep adaptation (Leimkuhler, Lohmann, and Whalley 2025), introducing an adaptive scheme: SA-SGLD, which employs time rescaling to modulate the stepsize according to a monitored quantity (typically the local gradient norm). SA-SGLD can automatically shrink stepsizes in regions of high curvature and expand them in flatter regions, improving both stability and mixing without introducing bias. We show that our method can achieve more accurate posterior sampling than SGLD on high-curvature 2D toy examples and in image classification with BNNs using sharp priors.

Large Language Models (LLMs), despite being trained on text alone, surprisingly develop rich visual priors. These priors allow latent visual capabilities to be unlocked for vision tasks with a relatively small amount of multimodal data, and in some cases, to perform visual tasks without ever having seen an image. Through systematic analysis, we reveal that visual priors-the implicit, emergent knowledge about the visual world acquired during language pre-training-are composed of separable perception and reasoning priors with unique scaling trends and origins. We show that an LLM's latent visual reasoning ability is predominantly developed by pre-training on reasoning-centric data (e.g., code, math, academia) and scales progressively. This reasoning prior acquired from language pre-training is transferable and universally applicable to visual reasoning. In contrast, a perception prior emerges more diffusely from broad corpora, and perception ability is more sensitive to the vision encoder and visual instruction tuning data. In parallel, text describing the visual world proves crucial, though its performance impact saturates rapidly. Leveraging these insights, we propose a data-centric recipe for pre-training vision-aware LLMs and verify it in 1T token scale pre-training. Our findings are grounded in over 100 controlled experiments consuming 500,000 GPU-hours, spanning the full MLLM construction pipeline-from LLM pre-training to visual alignment and supervised multimodal fine-tuning-across five model scales, a wide range of data categories and mixtures, and multiple adaptation setups. Along with our main findings, we propose and investigate several hypotheses, and introduce the Multi-Level Existence Bench (MLE-Bench). Together, this work provides a new way of deliberately cultivating visual priors from language pre-training, paving the way for the next generation of multimodal LLMs.

LLMs are known to exhibit sycophancy: agreeing with and flattering users, even at the cost of correctness. Prior work measures sycophancy only as direct agreement with users' explicitly stated beliefs that can be compared to a ground truth. This fails to capture broader forms of sycophancy such as affirming a user's self-image or other implicit beliefs. To address this gap, we introduce social sycophancy, characterizing sycophancy as excessive preservation of a user's face (their desired self-image), and present ELEPHANT, a benchmark for measuring social sycophancy in an LLM. Applying our benchmark to 11 models, we show that LLMs consistently exhibit high rates of social sycophancy: on average, they preserve user's face 45 percentage points more than humans in general advice queries and in queries describing clear user wrongdoing (from Reddit's r/AmITheAsshole). Furthermore, when prompted with perspectives from either side of a moral conflict, LLMs affirm both sides (depending on whichever side the user adopts) in 48% of cases--telling both the at-fault party and the wronged party that they are not wrong--rather than adhering to a consistent moral or value judgment. We further show that social sycophancy is rewarded in preference datasets, and that while existing mitigation strategies for sycophancy are limited in effectiveness, model-based steering shows promise for mitigating these behaviors. Our work provides theoretical grounding and an empirical benchmark for understanding and addressing sycophancy in the open-ended contexts that characterize the vast majority of LLM use cases.

We study the problem of learning generative models for discrete sequences in a continuous embedding space. Whereas prior approaches typically operate in Euclidean space or on the probability simplex, we instead work on the sphere mathbb S^{d-1}. There the von Mises-Fisher (vMF) distribution induces a natural noise process and admits a closed-form conditional score. The conditional velocity is in general intractable. Exploiting the radial symmetry of the vMF density we reduce the continuity equation on mathbb S^{d-1} to a scalar ODE in the cosine similarity, whose unique bounded solution determines the velocity. The marginal velocity and marginal score on (mathbb S^{d-1})^L both decompose into posterior-weighted tangent sums that differ only by per-token scalar weights. This gives access to both ODE and predictor-corrector (PC) sampling. The posterior is the only learned object, trained by a cross-entropy loss. Experiments compare the vMF path against geodesic and Euclidean alternatives. The combination of vMF and PC sampling significantly improves results on Sudoku and language modeling.

Facing the current debate on whether Large Language Models (LLMs) attain near-human intelligence levels (Mitchell & Krakauer, 2023; Bubeck et al., 2023; Kosinski, 2023; Shiffrin & Mitchell, 2023; Ullman, 2023), the current study introduces a benchmark for evaluating social intelligence, one of the most distinctive aspects of human cognition. We developed a comprehensive theoretical framework for social dynamics and introduced two evaluation tasks: Inverse Reasoning (IR) and Inverse Inverse Planning (IIP). Our approach also encompassed a computational model based on recursive Bayesian inference, adept at elucidating diverse human behavioral patterns. Extensive experiments and detailed analyses revealed that humans surpassed the latest GPT models in overall performance, zero-shot learning, one-shot generalization, and adaptability to multi-modalities. Notably, GPT models demonstrated social intelligence only at the most basic order (order = 0), in stark contrast to human social intelligence (order >= 2). Further examination indicated a propensity of LLMs to rely on pattern recognition for shortcuts, casting doubt on their possession of authentic human-level social intelligence. Our codes, dataset, appendix and human data are released at https://github.com/bigai-ai/Evaluate-n-Model-Social-Intelligence.

Clinicians trace cephalometric radiographs following a structured anatomical workflow, yet no prior system encodes this into computation. We present a five-phase anatomy-guided pipeline producing confidence-weighted spatial priors that shape HRNet-W32 training, achieving 1.04 mm mean radial error on 25 landmarks across 1,502 radiographs from 7+ imaging devices. A training x inference prior matrix isolates the mechanism: anatomical priors maintain a 1% validation-to-test gap versus 88% without priors (1.94 mm), despite identical validation convergence. The matrix establishes that all trained models are inference-independent, the expanded architecture alone provides no benefit, random priors yield partial but unstable improvement (1.72 mm), and only image-specific anatomically correct priors produce the 1.04 mm result -- functioning as a training-time regularizer requiring no automated prior generation at deployment. Five-fold cross-validation (p=0.0015), patient-level permutation testing (p<0.0001, n=151), quantified Grad-CAM analysis (88% vs. 74% in-zone activation, p<0.001), and clinical measurement validation (skeletal classification kappa=0.79-0.84, zero Class II<->III reversals, ICC>0.95) provide converging evidence. Cross-domain experiments on echocardiography, cervical spine, and hand radiography support the hypothesis that prior effectiveness scales with the spatial entropy of the landmark distribution.

While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However, existing methods are often computationally expensive, or demand costly retraining when priors change, limiting their utility, particularly in sequential inference problems such as real-time sensor fusion. To address these challenges, we introduce the Distribution Transformer -- a novel architecture that can learn arbitrary distribution-to-distribution mappings. Our method can be trained to map a prior to the corresponding posterior, conditioned on some dataset -- thus performing approximate Bayesian inference. Our novel architecture represents a prior distribution as a (universally-approximating) Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and transforms it into a GMM representation of the posterior. The components of the GMM attend to each other via self-attention, and to the datapoints via cross-attention. We demonstrate that Distribution Transformers both maintain flexibility to vary the prior, and significantly reduces computation times-from minutes to milliseconds-while achieving log-likelihood performance on par with or superior to existing approximate inference methods across tasks such as sequential inference, quantum system parameter inference, and Gaussian Process predictive posterior inference with hyperpriors.

Humans intuitively navigate social interactions by simulating unspoken dynamics and reasoning about others' perspectives, even with limited information. In contrast, AI systems struggle to automatically structure and reason about these implicit social contexts. In this paper, we introduce a novel structured social world representation formalism (S3AP), designed to help AI systems reason more effectively about social dynamics. Following a POMDP-driven design, S3AP represents social interactions as structured tuples, such as state, observation, agent actions, and mental states, which can be automatically induced from free-form narratives or other inputs. We first show S3AP can help LLMs better understand social narratives across 5 social reasoning tasks (e.g., +51% improvement on FANToM's theory-of-mind reasoning with OpenAI's o1), reaching new state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance. We then induce social world models from these structured representations, demonstrating their ability to predict future social dynamics and improve agent decision-making, yielding up to +18% improvement on the SOTOPIA social interaction benchmark. Our findings highlight the promise of S3AP as a powerful, general-purpose representation for social world states, enabling the development of more socially-aware systems that better navigate social interactions.

Multi-agent debate (MAD) improves the reasoning capabilities of large language models by having multiple agents iteratively refine their responses through discussion. However, MAD suffers from a critical vulnerability known as shared misconception: when a majority of agents initially converge on an incorrect answer, the debate process tends to amplify rather than correct the error. Existing methods primarily address peer skew but leave the agents' inherently biased concept priors unaddressed. To mitigate this systematic weakness, we propose R^2-MAD (Remember and Reweight for Multi-Agent Debate), a framework that equips agents with an experience memory accumulated from past debates. R^2-MAD intervenes on both failure modes through two complementary mechanisms: A debate-state-aware retrieval policy dynamically calibrates the concept prior by retrieving relevant historical evidence based on the current consensus level. Then these retrieved experiences provide a basis for estimating per-agent reliability, yielding confidence weights to modulate peer influence. Experiments on various benchmarks show that R^2-MAD achieves consistent improvements over existing single-agent and MAD baselines.

Social navigation is the capability of an autonomous agent, such as a robot, to navigate in a 'socially compliant' manner in the presence of other intelligent agents such as humans. With the emergence of autonomously navigating mobile robots in human populated environments (e.g., domestic service robots in homes and restaurants and food delivery robots on public sidewalks), incorporating socially compliant navigation behaviors on these robots becomes critical to ensuring safe and comfortable human robot coexistence. To address this challenge, imitation learning is a promising framework, since it is easier for humans to demonstrate the task of social navigation rather than to formulate reward functions that accurately capture the complex multi objective setting of social navigation. The use of imitation learning and inverse reinforcement learning to social navigation for mobile robots, however, is currently hindered by a lack of large scale datasets that capture socially compliant robot navigation demonstrations in the wild. To fill this gap, we introduce Socially CompliAnt Navigation Dataset (SCAND) a large scale, first person view dataset of socially compliant navigation demonstrations. Our dataset contains 8.7 hours, 138 trajectories, 25 miles of socially compliant, human teleoperated driving demonstrations that comprises multi modal data streams including 3D lidar, joystick commands, odometry, visual and inertial information, collected on two morphologically different mobile robots a Boston Dynamics Spot and a Clearpath Jackal by four different human demonstrators in both indoor and outdoor environments. We additionally perform preliminary analysis and validation through real world robot experiments and show that navigation policies learned by imitation learning on SCAND generate socially compliant behaviors

Exposing meaningful and interpretable neural interactions is critical to understanding neural circuits. Inferred neural interactions from neural signals primarily reflect functional interactions. In a long experiment, subject animals may experience different stages defined by the experiment, stimuli, or behavioral states, and hence functional interactions can change over time. To model dynamically changing functional interactions, prior work employs state-switching generalized linear models with hidden Markov models (i.e., HMM-GLMs). However, we argue they lack biological plausibility, as functional interactions are shaped and confined by the underlying anatomical connectome. Here, we propose a novel prior-informed state-switching GLM. We introduce both a Gaussian prior and a one-hot prior over the GLM in each state. The priors are learnable. We will show that the learned prior should capture the state-constant interaction, shedding light on the underlying anatomical connectome and revealing more likely physical neuron interactions. The state-dependent interaction modeled by each GLM offers traceability to capture functional variations across multiple brain states. Our methods effectively recover true interaction structures in simulated data, achieve the highest predictive likelihood with real neural datasets, and render interaction structures and hidden states more interpretable when applied to real neural data.

Social reasoning - inferring unobservable beliefs and intentions from partial observations of other agents - remains a challenging task for large language models (LLMs). We evaluate the limits of current reasoning language models in the social deduction game Avalon and find that while the largest models demonstrate strong performance, they require extensive test-time inference and degrade sharply when distilled to smaller, real-time-capable variants. To address this, we introduce a hybrid reasoning framework that externalizes belief inference to a structured probabilistic model, while using an LLM for language understanding and interaction. Our approach achieves competitive performance with much larger models in Agent-Agent play and, notably, is the first language agent to defeat human players in a controlled study - achieving a 67% win rate and receiving higher qualitative ratings than both reasoning baselines and human teammates. We release code, models, and a dataset to support future work on social reasoning in LLM agents, which can be found at https://camp-lab-purdue.github.io/bayesian-social-deduction/

Personalized language-model assistants are often evaluated through a memory lens: can a model recall preferences users have explicitly stated in dialogue? More comprehensive personalization demands a harder capability -- inferring what users care about from the multimodal traces they naturally leave behind. We introduce SocialPersona, a benchmark for evaluating whether multimodal large language models (MLLMs) can recover revealed preferences from longitudinal social-media timelines and use them in dialogue. Built from longitudinal timelines of 171 everyday, non-promotional social-media users, SocialPersona contains text, images, timestamps, and 2,597 human-verified preference tags across seven interest domains, separating stable interests from recent interests. It supports two tasks: constructing structured user profiles from multimodal context and generating responses aligned with inferred profiles. Experiments with proprietary and open-weight MLLMs show that models can identify broad interest domains, yet their performance drops on fine-grained and recent interests and degrades further when inferred profiles must be used to personalize dialogue. Together with evidence that text and images provide complementary preference signals, these results indicate that robust cross-modal, long-horizon user modeling remains a key challenge, and that SocialPersona can help measure and advance progress toward assistants that infer and act on revealed preferences.

Social and behavioral determinants of health (SDOH) play a significant role in shaping health outcomes, and extracting these determinants from clinical notes is a first step to help healthcare providers systematically identify opportunities to provide appropriate care and address disparities. Progress on using NLP methods for this task has been hindered by the lack of high-quality publicly available labeled data, largely due to the privacy and regulatory constraints on the use of real patients' information. This paper introduces a new dataset, SDOH-NLI, that is based on publicly available notes and which we release publicly. We formulate SDOH extraction as a natural language inference (NLI) task, and provide binary textual entailment labels obtained from human raters for a cross product of a set of social history snippets as premises and SDOH factors as hypotheses. Our dataset differs from standard NLI benchmarks in that our premises and hypotheses are obtained independently. We evaluate both "off-the-shelf" entailment models as well as models fine-tuned on our data, and highlight the ways in which our dataset appears more challenging than commonly used NLI datasets.

The Multi-agent Path Finding (MAPF) problem involves finding collision-free paths for a team of agents in a known, static environment, with important applications in warehouse automation, logistics, or last-mile delivery. To meet the needs of these large-scale applications, current learning-based methods often deploy the same fully trained, decentralized network to all agents to improve scalability. However, such parameter sharing typically results in homogeneous behaviors among agents, which may prevent agents from breaking ties around symmetric conflict (e.g., bottlenecks) and might lead to live-/deadlocks. In this paper, we propose SYLPH, a novel learning-based MAPF framework aimed to mitigate the adverse effects of homogeneity by allowing agents to learn and dynamically select different social behaviors (akin to individual, dynamic roles), without affecting the scalability offered by parameter sharing. Specifically, SYLPH agents learn to select their Social Value Orientation (SVO) given the situation at hand, quantifying their own level of selfishness/altruism, as well as an SVO-conditioned MAPF policy dictating their movement actions. To these ends, each agent first determines the most influential other agent in the system by predicting future conflicts/interactions with other agents. Each agent selects its own SVO towards that agent, and trains its decentralized MAPF policy to enact this SVO until another agent becomes more influential. To further allow agents to consider each others' social preferences, each agent gets access to the SVO value of their neighbors. As a result of this hierarchical decision-making and exchange of social preferences, SYLPH endows agents with the ability to reason about the MAPF task through more latent spaces and nuanced contexts, leading to varied responses that can help break ties around symmetric conflicts. [...]

Since the seminal work of TabPFN, research on tabular foundation models (TFMs) based on in-context learning (ICL) has challenged long-standing paradigms in machine learning. Without seeing any real-world data, models pretrained on purely synthetic datasets generalize remarkably well across diverse datasets, often using only a moderate number of in-context examples. This shifts the focus in tabular machine learning from model architecture design to the design of synthetic datasets, or, more precisely, to the prior distributions that generate them. Yet the guiding principles for prior design remain poorly understood. This work marks the first attempt to address the gap. We systematically investigate and identify key properties of synthetic priors that allow pretrained TFMs to generalize well. Based on these insights, we introduce Mitra, a TFM trained on a curated mixture of synthetic priors selected for their diversity, distinctiveness, and performance on real-world tabular data. Mitra consistently outperforms state-of-the-art TFMs, such as TabPFNv2 and TabICL, across both classification and regression benchmarks, with better sample efficiency.

Real-world single image denoising is crucial and practical in computer vision. Bayesian inversions combined with score priors now have proven effective for single image denoising but are limited to white Gaussian noise. Moreover, applying existing score-based methods for real-world denoising requires not only the explicit train of score priors on the target domain but also the careful design of sampling procedures for posterior inference, which is complicated and impractical. To address these limitations, we propose a score priors-guided deep variational inference, namely ScoreDVI, for practical real-world denoising. By considering the deep variational image posterior with a Gaussian form, score priors are extracted based on easily accessible minimum MSE Non-i.i.d Gaussian denoisers and variational samples, which in turn facilitate optimizing the variational image posterior. Such a procedure adaptively applies cheap score priors to denoising. Additionally, we exploit a Non-i.i.d Gaussian mixture model and variational noise posterior to model the real-world noise. This scheme also enables the pixel-wise fusion of multiple image priors and variational image posteriors. Besides, we develop a noise-aware prior assignment strategy that dynamically adjusts the weight of image priors in the optimization. Our method outperforms other single image-based real-world denoising methods and achieves comparable performance to dataset-based unsupervised methods.

We consider the stochastic linear contextual bandit problem with high-dimensional features. We analyze the Thompson sampling algorithm using special classes of sparsity-inducing priors (e.g., spike-and-slab) to model the unknown parameter and provide a nearly optimal upper bound on the expected cumulative regret. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that provides theoretical guarantees of Thompson sampling in high-dimensional and sparse contextual bandits. For faster computation, we use variational inference instead of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to approximate the posterior distribution. Extensive simulations demonstrate the improved performance of our proposed algorithm over existing ones.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have emerged as powerful foundation models for tabular causal inference, yet their extension to time series remains limited by the absence of synthetic data generators that provide interventional targets. Existing time series benchmarks generate observational data with ground-truth causal graphs but lack the interventional data required for training causal foundation models. To address this, we propose CausalTimePrior, a principled framework for generating synthetic temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with paired observational and interventional time series. Our prior supports configurable causal graph structures, nonlinear autoregressive mechanisms, regime-switching dynamics, and multiple intervention types (hard, soft, time-varying). We demonstrate that PFNs trained on CausalTimePrior can perform in-context causal effect estimation on held-out TSCMs, establishing a pathway toward foundation models for time series causal inference.

Existing neural rendering methods for creating human avatars typically either require dense input signals such as video or multi-view images, or leverage a learned prior from large-scale specific 3D human datasets such that reconstruction can be performed with sparse-view inputs. Most of these methods fail to achieve realistic reconstruction when only a single image is available. To enable the data-efficient creation of realistic animatable 3D humans, we propose ELICIT, a novel method for learning human-specific neural radiance fields from a single image. Inspired by the fact that humans can effortlessly estimate the body geometry and imagine full-body clothing from a single image, we leverage two priors in ELICIT: 3D geometry prior and visual semantic prior. Specifically, ELICIT utilizes the 3D body shape geometry prior from a skinned vertex-based template model (i.e., SMPL) and implements the visual clothing semantic prior with the CLIP-based pretrained models. Both priors are used to jointly guide the optimization for creating plausible content in the invisible areas. Taking advantage of the CLIP models, ELICIT can use text descriptions to generate text-conditioned unseen regions. In order to further improve visual details, we propose a segmentation-based sampling strategy that locally refines different parts of the avatar. Comprehensive evaluations on multiple popular benchmarks, including ZJU-MoCAP, Human3.6M, and DeepFashion, show that ELICIT has outperformed strong baseline methods of avatar creation when only a single image is available. The code is public for research purposes at https://huangyangyi.github.io/ELICIT/.

Bayesian persuasion studies how an informed sender should influence beliefs of rational receivers who take decisions through Bayesian updating of a common prior. We focus on the online Bayesian persuasion framework, in which the sender repeatedly faces one or more receivers with unknown and adversarially selected types. First, we show how to obtain a tight tilde O(T^{1/2}) regret bound in the case in which the sender faces a single receiver and has partial feedback, improving over the best previously known bound of tilde O(T^{4/5}). Then, we provide the first no-regret guarantees for the multi-receiver setting under partial feedback. Finally, we show how to design no-regret algorithms with polynomial per-iteration running time by exploiting type reporting, thereby circumventing known intractability results on online Bayesian persuasion. We provide efficient algorithms guaranteeing a O(T^{1/2}) regret upper bound both in the single- and multi-receiver scenario when type reporting is allowed.

Scene text image super-resolution (STISR) enhances the resolution and quality of low-resolution images. Unlike previous studies that treated scene text images as natural images, recent methods using a text prior (TP), extracted from a pre-trained text recognizer, have shown strong performance. However, two major issues emerge: (1) Explicit categorical priors, like TP, can negatively impact STISR if incorrect. We reveal that these explicit priors are unstable and propose replacing them with Non-CAtegorical Prior (NCAP) using penultimate layer representations. (2) Pre-trained recognizers used to generate TP struggle with low-resolution images. To address this, most studies jointly train the recognizer with the STISR network to bridge the domain gap between low- and high-resolution images, but this can cause an overconfidence phenomenon in the prior modality. We highlight this issue and propose a method to mitigate it by mixing hard and soft labels. Experiments on the TextZoom dataset demonstrate an improvement by 3.5%, while our method significantly enhances generalization performance by 14.8\% across four text recognition datasets. Our method generalizes to all TP-guided STISR networks.

The core premise of AI debate as a scalable oversight technique is that it is harder to lie convincingly than to refute a lie, enabling the judge to identify the correct position. Yet, existing debate experiments have relied on datasets with ground truth, where lying is reduced to defending an incorrect proposition. This overlooks a subjective dimension: lying also requires the belief that the claim defended is false. In this work, we apply debate to subjective questions and explicitly measure large language models' prior beliefs before experiments. Debaters were asked to select their preferred position, then presented with a judge persona deliberately designed to conflict with their identified priors. This setup tested whether models would adopt sycophantic strategies, aligning with the judge's presumed perspective to maximize persuasiveness, or remain faithful to their prior beliefs. We implemented and compared two debate protocols, sequential and simultaneous, to evaluate potential systematic biases. Finally, we assessed whether models were more persuasive and produced higher-quality arguments when defending positions consistent with their prior beliefs versus when arguing against them. Our main findings show that models tend to prefer defending stances aligned with the judge persona rather than their prior beliefs, sequential debate introduces significant bias favoring the second debater, models are more persuasive when defending positions aligned with their prior beliefs, and paradoxically, arguments misaligned with prior beliefs are rated as higher quality in pairwise comparison. These results can inform human judges to provide higher-quality training signals and contribute to more aligned AI systems, while revealing important aspects of human-AI interaction regarding persuasion dynamics in language models.

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring click-through rates for different demographic groups. The most standard approach is to report the plain average of each outcome. Despite simplicity, the estimates are noisy when the sample sizes or mean parameters are small. In contrast, the Empirical Bayes (EB) methods are able to boost the average accuracy by borrowing information across tasks. Nevertheless, the EB methods require a Bayesian model where the parameters are sampled from a prior distribution which, unlike the commonly-studied Gaussian case, is unidentified due to discreteness of binomial measurements. Even if the prior distribution is known, the computation is difficult when the sample sizes are heterogeneous as there is no simple joint conjugate prior for the sample size and mean parameter. In this paper, we consider the compound decision framework which treats the sample size and mean parameters as fixed quantities. We develop an approximate Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) for the average mean squared error given any class of estimators. For a class of machine learning-assisted linear shrinkage estimators, we establish asymptotic optimality, regret bounds, and valid inference. Unlike existing work, we work with the binomials directly without resorting to Gaussian approximations. This allows us to work with small sample sizes and/or mean parameters in both one-sample and two-sample settings. We demonstrate our approach using three datasets on firm discrimination, education outcomes, and innovation rates.

Social norms -- the unspoken commonsense rules about acceptable social behavior -- are crucial in understanding the underlying causes and intents of people's actions in narratives. For example, underlying an action such as "wanting to call cops on my neighbors" are social norms that inform our conduct, such as "It is expected that you report crimes." We present Social Chemistry, a new conceptual formalism to study people's everyday social norms and moral judgments over a rich spectrum of real life situations described in natural language. We introduce Social-Chem-101, a large-scale corpus that catalogs 292k rules-of-thumb such as "it is rude to run a blender at 5am" as the basic conceptual units. Each rule-of-thumb is further broken down with 12 different dimensions of people's judgments, including social judgments of good and bad, moral foundations, expected cultural pressure, and assumed legality, which together amount to over 4.5 million annotations of categorical labels and free-text descriptions. Comprehensive empirical results based on state-of-the-art neural models demonstrate that computational modeling of social norms is a promising research direction. Our model framework, Neural Norm Transformer, learns and generalizes Social-Chem-101 to successfully reason about previously unseen situations, generating relevant (and potentially novel) attribute-aware social rules-of-thumb.

We develop data-driven methods for incorporating physical information for priors to learn parsimonious representations of nonlinear systems arising from parameterized PDEs and mechanics. Our approach is based on Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) for learning from observations nonlinear state space models. We develop ways to incorporate geometric and topological priors through general manifold latent space representations. We investigate the performance of our methods for learning low dimensional representations for the nonlinear Burgers equation and constrained mechanical systems.

Individual agents in multi-agent (MA) systems often lack robustness, tending to blindly conform to misleading peers. We show this weakness stems from both sycophancy and inadequate ability to evaluate peer reliability. To address this, we first formalize the learning problem of history-aware reference, introducing the historical interactions of peers as additional input, so that agents can estimate peer reliability and learn from trustworthy peers when uncertain. This shifts the task from evaluating peer reasoning quality to estimating peer reliability based on interaction history. We then develop Epistemic Context Learning (ECL): a reasoning framework that conditions predictions on explicitly-built peer profiles from history. We further optimize ECL by reinforcement learning using auxiliary rewards. Our experiments reveal that our ECL enables small models like Qwen 3-4B to outperform a history-agnostic baseline 8x its size (Qwen 3-30B) by accurately identifying reliable peers. ECL also boosts frontier models to near-perfect (100%) performance. We show that ECL generalizes well to various MA configurations and we find that trust is modeled well by LLMs, revealing a strong correlation in trust modeling accuracy and final answer quality.

Personalizing visual generative models to meet specific user needs has gained increasing attention, yet current methods like Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) remain impractical due to their demand for task-specific data and lengthy optimization. While a few hypernetwork-based approaches attempt to predict adaptation weights directly, they struggle to map fine-grained user prompts to complex LoRA distributions, limiting their practical applicability. To bridge this gap, we propose LoFA, a general framework that efficiently predicts personalized priors for fast model adaptation. We first identify a key property of LoRA: structured distribution patterns emerge in the relative changes between LoRA and base model parameters. Building on this, we design a two-stage hypernetwork: first predicting relative distribution patterns that capture key adaptation regions, then using these to guide final LoRA weight prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method consistently predicts high-quality personalized priors within seconds, across multiple tasks and user prompts, even outperforming conventional LoRA that requires hours of processing. Project page: https://jaeger416.github.io/lofa/.

Previous literature has largely shown that Large Language Models (LLMs) perpetuate social biases learnt from their pre-training data. Given the notable lack of resources for social bias evaluation in languages other than English, and for social contexts outside of the United States, this paper introduces the Spanish and the Catalan Bias Benchmarks for Question Answering (EsBBQ and CaBBQ). Based on the original BBQ, these two parallel datasets are designed to assess social bias across 10 categories using a multiple-choice QA setting, now adapted to the Spanish and Catalan languages and to the social context of Spain. We report evaluation results on different LLMs, factoring in model family, size and variant. Our results show that models tend to fail to choose the correct answer in ambiguous scenarios, and that high QA accuracy often correlates with greater reliance on social biases.

Understanding human social behavior such as recognizing emotions and the social dynamics causing them is an important and challenging problem. While LLMs have made remarkable advances, they are limited to the textual domain and cannot account for the major role that non-verbal cues play in understanding social situations. Vision Language Models (VLMs) can potentially account for this gap, however their ability to make correct inferences over such social cues has received little attention. In this paper, we explore the capabilities of VLMs at social reasoning. We identify a previously overlooked limitation in VLMs: the Visual Social-Pragmatic Inference gap. To target this gap, we propose a new task for VLMs: Visual Social-Pragmatic Inference. We construct a high quality dataset to test the abilities of a VLM for this task and benchmark the performance of several VLMs on it.

We present an approach to modeling an image-space prior on scene dynamics. Our prior is learned from a collection of motion trajectories extracted from real video sequences containing natural, oscillating motion such as trees, flowers, candles, and clothes blowing in the wind. Given a single image, our trained model uses a frequency-coordinated diffusion sampling process to predict a per-pixel long-term motion representation in the Fourier domain, which we call a neural stochastic motion texture. This representation can be converted into dense motion trajectories that span an entire video. Along with an image-based rendering module, these trajectories can be used for a number of downstream applications, such as turning still images into seamlessly looping dynamic videos, or allowing users to realistically interact with objects in real pictures.

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is considered the gold standard for Bayesian inference in large-scale models, such as Bayesian neural networks. Since practitioners face speed versus accuracy tradeoffs in these models, variational inference (VI) is often the preferable option. Unfortunately, VI makes strong assumptions on both the factorization and functional form of the posterior. In this work, we propose a new non-parametric variational approximation that makes no assumptions about the approximate posterior's functional form and allows practitioners to specify the exact dependencies the algorithm should respect or break. The approach relies on a new Langevin-type algorithm that operates on a modified energy function, where parts of the latent variables are averaged over samples from earlier iterations of the Markov chain. This way, statistical dependencies can be broken in a controlled way, allowing the chain to mix faster. This scheme can be further modified in a "dropout" manner, leading to even more scalability. We test our scheme for ResNet-20 on CIFAR-10, SVHN, and FMNIST. In all cases, we find improvements in convergence speed and/or final accuracy compared to SG-MCMC and VI.

Algorithms increasingly serve as information mediators--from social media feeds and targeted advertising to the increasing ubiquity of LLMs. This engenders a joint process where agents combine private, algorithmically-mediated signals with learning from peers to arrive at decisions. To study such settings, we introduce a model of controlled sequential social learning in which an information-mediating planner (e.g. an LLM) controls the information structure of agents while they also learn from the decisions of earlier agents. The planner may seek to improve social welfare (altruistic planner) or to induce a specific action the planner prefers (biased planner). Our framework presents a new optimization problem for social learning that combines dynamic programming with decentralized action choices and Bayesian belief updates. We prove the convexity of the value function and characterize the optimal policies of altruistic and biased planners, which attain desired tradeoffs between the costs they incur and the payoffs they earn from induced agent choices. Notably, in some regimes the biased planner intentionally obfuscates the agents' signals. Even under stringent transparency constraints--information parity with individuals, no lying or cherry-picking, and full observability--we show that information mediation can substantially shift social welfare in either direction. We complement our theory with simulations in which LLMs act as both planner and agents. Notably, the LLM planner in our simulations exhibits emergent strategic behavior in steering public opinion that broadly mirrors the trends predicted, though key deviations suggest the influence of non-Bayesian reasoning consistent with the cognitive patterns of both humans and LLMs trained on human-like data. Together, we establish our framework as a tractable basis for studying the impact and regulation of LLM information mediators.

Relational Databases (RDBs) are the backbone of modern business, yet they lack foundation models comparable to those in text or vision. A key obstacle is that high-quality RDBs are private, scarce and structurally heterogeneous, making internet-scale pre-training infeasible. To overcome this data scarcity, We introduce RDB-PFN, the first relational foundation model trained purely via synthetic data. Inspired by Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs) where synthetic data generated from Structural Causal Models (SCMs) enables reasoning on single tables, we design a Relational Prior Generator to create an infinite stream of diverse RDBs from scratch. Pre-training on over 2 million synthetic single-table and relational tasks, RDB-PFN learns to adapt to any new database instantly via genuine in-context learning. Experiments verify RDB-PFN achieves strong few-shot performance on 19 real-world relational prediction tasks, outperforming graph-based and single-table foundation-model baselines (given the same DFS-linearized inputs), while using a lightweight architecture and fast inference. The code is available at https://github.com/MuLabPKU/RDBPFN

Diffusion models recently proved to be remarkable priors for Bayesian inverse problems. However, training these models typically requires access to large amounts of clean data, which could prove difficult in some settings. In this work, we present a novel method based on the expectation-maximization algorithm for training diffusion models from incomplete and noisy observations only. Unlike previous works, our method leads to proper diffusion models, which is crucial for downstream tasks. As part of our method, we propose and motivate an improved posterior sampling scheme for unconditional diffusion models. We present empirical evidence supporting the effectiveness of our method.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in socially grounded applications, where success requires interpreting context, inferring others' mental states, and reasoning about unreliable information. Yet existing benchmarks rarely evaluate these demands jointly in complex, evolving settings. We introduce SocialMaze, a benchmark that organizes six tasks across social deduction games, daily-life interactions, and digital community platforms along three descriptive design axes: deep reasoning, dynamic interaction, and information uncertainty. These axes characterize intended sources of task difficulty rather than latent, factor-analytic dimensions of model capability. Automated checks and human validation support data quality. Evaluations of twelve proprietary and open-weight LLMs show substantial variation in the use of evolving interaction histories; stronger chain-of-thought reasoners perform better on tasks requiring deeper inference, while uncertainty consistently degrades performance. Reasoning workflows help weaker short-chain-of-thought backbones but saturate on stronger reasoners. Finally, targeted fine-tuning on curated reasoning traces substantially improves structured social-reasoning tasks, whereas transfer to language-aggregation tasks remains statistically inconclusive. The project homepage is available at https://xzx34.github.io/socialmaze/.

LLM safety evaluations predominantly test models in isolation, yet deployed AI agents increasingly operate within persistent social environments alongside other agents. We introduce a Moltbook-style simulation platform where thousands of LLM agents interact across communities over a simulated month, and use it to evaluate privacy as a downstream safety concern under varying degrees of social pressure. We find that shifting from single turn to multi turn social evaluation amplifies privacy violations (CIMemories 19.95% to Ours 45.30% across OpenAI models), that leakage is socially contagious, with agents 8 times more likely to disclose sensitive information after observing a peer do so, and that explicit privacy instructions reduce but do not eliminate this effect, leaving leakage rates above 37.8% even with safeguards. Our findings suggest that static chat based safety benchmarks systematically underestimate risks in agentic deployment, and that social context alone is sufficient to elicit sensitive disclosures that single turn evaluations would never surface.

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have demonstrated outstanding performance across various multimodal tasks. However, they suffer from a problem known as language prior, where responses are generated based solely on textual patterns while disregarding image information. Addressing the issue of language prior is crucial, as it can lead to undesirable biases or hallucinations when dealing with images that are out of training distribution. Despite its importance, current methods for accurately measuring language priors in LVLMs are poorly studied. Although existing benchmarks based on counterfactual or out-of-distribution images can partially be used to measure language priors, they fail to disentangle language priors from other confounding factors. To this end, we propose a new benchmark called VLind-Bench, which is the first benchmark specifically designed to measure the language priors, or blindness, of LVLMs. It not only includes tests on counterfactual images to assess language priors but also involves a series of tests to evaluate more basic capabilities such as commonsense knowledge, visual perception, and commonsense biases. For each instance in our benchmark, we ensure that all these basic tests are passed before evaluating the language priors, thereby minimizing the influence of other factors on the assessment. The evaluation and analysis of recent LVLMs in our benchmark reveal that almost all models exhibit a significant reliance on language priors, presenting a strong challenge in the field.

Text-to-3D generation by distilling pretrained large-scale text-to-image diffusion models has shown great promise but still suffers from inconsistent 3D geometric structures (Janus problems) and severe artifacts. The aforementioned problems mainly stem from 2D diffusion models lacking 3D awareness during the lifting. In this work, we present GeoDream, a novel method that incorporates explicit generalized 3D priors with 2D diffusion priors to enhance the capability of obtaining unambiguous 3D consistent geometric structures without sacrificing diversity or fidelity. Specifically, we first utilize a multi-view diffusion model to generate posed images and then construct cost volume from the predicted image, which serves as native 3D geometric priors, ensuring spatial consistency in 3D space. Subsequently, we further propose to harness 3D geometric priors to unlock the great potential of 3D awareness in 2D diffusion priors via a disentangled design. Notably, disentangling 2D and 3D priors allows us to refine 3D geometric priors further. We justify that the refined 3D geometric priors aid in the 3D-aware capability of 2D diffusion priors, which in turn provides superior guidance for the refinement of 3D geometric priors. Our numerical and visual comparisons demonstrate that GeoDream generates more 3D consistent textured meshes with high-resolution realistic renderings (i.e., 1024 times 1024) and adheres more closely to semantic coherence.

Macroeconomic data is characterized by a limited number of observations (small T), many time series (big K) but also by featuring temporal dependence. Neural networks, by contrast, are designed for datasets with millions of observations and covariates. In this paper, we develop Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that are well-suited for handling datasets commonly used for macroeconomic analysis in policy institutions. Our approach avoids extensive specification searches through a novel mixture specification for the activation function that appropriately selects the form of nonlinearities. Shrinkage priors are used to prune the network and force irrelevant neurons to zero. To cope with heteroskedasticity, the BNN is augmented with a stochastic volatility model for the error term. We illustrate how the model can be used in a policy institution by first showing that our different BNNs produce precise density forecasts, typically better than those from other machine learning methods. Finally, we showcase how our model can be used to recover nonlinearities in the reaction of macroeconomic aggregates to financial shocks.

Leveraging the rich world knowledge of Large Language Models (LLMs) to enhance Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents offers a promising path toward general intelligence. However, a fundamental prior-dynamics mismatch hinders existing approaches: static LLM knowledge cannot directly adapt to the complex transition dynamics of long-horizon tasks. Using LLM priors as fixed policies limits exploration diversity, as the prior is blind to environment-specific dynamics; while end-to-end fine-tuning suffers from optimization instability and credit assignment issues. To bridge this gap, we propose PriorZero, a unified framework that integrates LLM-derived conceptual priors into world-model-based planning through a decoupled rollout-training design. During rollout, a novel root-prior injection mechanism incorporates LLM priors exclusively at the root node of Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), focusing search on semantically promising actions while preserving the world model's deep lookahead capability. During training, PriorZero decouples world-model learning from LLM adaptation: the world model is continuously refined on interaction data to jointly improve its dynamics, policy, and value predictions, its value estimates are then leveraged to provide fine-grained credit assignment signals for stable LLM fine-tuning via alternating optimization. Experiments across diverse benchmarks, including text-based adventure games in Jericho and instruction-following gridworld tasks in BabyAI, demonstrate that PriorZero consistently improves both exploration efficiency and asymptotic performance, establishing a promising framework for LLM-empowered decision-making. Our code is available at https://github.com/opendilab/LightZero.

Large language models (LLMs) sometimes fail to respond appropriately to deterministic tasks -- such as counting or forming acronyms -- because the implicit prior distribution they have learned over sequences of tokens influences their responses. In this work, we show that, in at least some cases, LLMs actually compute the information needed to perform these tasks correctly, and we identify some interventions that can allow them to access this information to improve their performance. First, we show that simply prompting the language model to not rely on its prior knowledge leads to dramatic improvements in prior-dominated tasks. We then use mechanistic interpretability techniques to localize the prior within the LLM and manipulate the extent to which that prior influences its responses. Specifically, we show that it is possible to identify layers of the underlying neural network that correlate with the prior probability of a response and that lightweight finetuning of these layers with basic prompts on prior-dominated tasks achieves high performance on held-out answers. These results suggest that the information required to produce a correct response is contained within the representations of the problems formed by the models. Furthermore, we show that this finetuning is significantly more effective for prior-dominated tasks, and that the error after finetuning is no longer correlated with the prior. Our results suggest that it may be possible to define effective methods for manipulating the extent to which LLMs rely upon their priors in solving problems, potentially increasing their performance in settings where LLMs hallucinate for reasons related to the prior probability of token sequences.

Recent studies on inverse problems have proposed posterior samplers that leverage the pre-trained diffusion models as powerful priors. These attempts have paved the way for using diffusion models in a wide range of inverse problems. However, the existing methods entail computationally demanding iterative sampling procedures and optimize a separate solution for each measurement, which leads to limited scalability and lack of generalization capability across unseen samples. To address these limitations, we propose a novel approach, Diffusion prior-based Amortized Variational Inference (DAVI) that solves inverse problems with a diffusion prior from an amortized variational inference perspective. Specifically, instead of separate measurement-wise optimization, our amortized inference learns a function that directly maps measurements to the implicit posterior distributions of corresponding clean data, enabling a single-step posterior sampling even for unseen measurements. Extensive experiments on image restoration tasks, e.g., Gaussian deblur, 4times super-resolution, and box inpainting with two benchmark datasets, demonstrate our approach's superior performance over strong baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/mlvlab/DAVI.

Object detectors often produce over-confident predictions for objects outside their training categories, leading to so-called out-of-distribution (OoD) hallucinations. Existing approaches for detecting or mitigating such hallucinations typically either construct scoring functions directly over learned object detector representations or modify the object detector itself to suppress hallucination emergence. However, the latent priors implicitly encoded in these representations remain largely unexplored and have not been explicitly decoded for OoD detection. To uncover and exploit these latent priors, we propose Structured Prior Knowledge (SPK), a hallucination-oriented framework that explicitly elicits OoD-relevant priors from pretrained object detectors. Specifically, SPK leverages in-distribution data and hallucination-inducing samples as diagnostic supervision to elicit part-level semantic concepts underlying object detector decision-making, rather than using them merely for rejection or object detector adaptation. The elicited semantic priors are further integrated with geometric and contextual priors to form a compact five-dimensional SPK representation for OoD detection. Extensive experiments across diverse object detector architectures and multiple OoD benchmarks demonstrate that SPK achieves state-of-the-art OoD detection. Our findings reveal that pretrained object detectors already encode substantially richer latent knowledge than is typically exploited for OoD detection. More importantly, this knowledge can be explicitly elicited and organized into a compact, structured, and interpretable knowledge space for prediction reliability analysis. This suggests a promising proactive route for improving object detector reliability by explicitly uncovering and leveraging latent priors. Code and data are available at: https://gricad-gitlab.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/dnn-safety/spk