Daily Papers

Medical image foundation models (MIFMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential for a wide range of clinical tasks, yet their development is constrained by the scarcity, heterogeneity, and high cost of large-scale annotated datasets. Here, we propose RaSD (Randomized Synthesis and Disentanglement), a scalable framework for pre-training MIFMs entirely on synthetic data. By modeling anatomical structures and appearance variations with randomized Gaussian distributions, RaSD exposes models to sufficient multi-scale structural and appearance perturbations, forcing them to rely on invariant and task-relevant anatomical cues rather than dataset-specific textures, thereby enabling robust and transferable representation learning. We pre-trained RaSD on 1.2 million 3D volumes and 9.6 million 2D images, and extensively evaluated the resulting models across 6 imaging modalities, 48 datasets, and 56 downstream tasks. Across all evaluated downstream tasks, RaSD consistently outperforms training-from-scratch models, achieves the best performance on 17 tasks, and remains comparable to models pre-trained on large real datasets in most others. These results demonstrate that the capacity of synthetic data alone to drive robust representation learning. Our findings establish a paradigm shift in medical AI, demonstrating that synthetic data can serve as a "free lunch" for scalable, privacy-preserving, and clinically generalizable foundation models.

Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) is a theoretically promising approach for black-box optimization; however, the confidence parameter beta is considerably large in the theorem and chosen heuristically in practice. Then, randomized GP-UCB (RGP-UCB) uses a randomized confidence parameter, which follows the Gamma distribution, to mitigate the impact of manually specifying beta. This study first generalizes the regret analysis of RGP-UCB to a wider class of distributions, including the Gamma distribution. Furthermore, we propose improved RGP-UCB (IRGP-UCB) based on a two-parameter exponential distribution, which achieves tighter Bayesian regret bounds. IRGP-UCB does not require an increase in the confidence parameter in terms of the number of iterations, which avoids over-exploration in the later iterations. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of IRGP-UCB through extensive experiments.

We present HyperQuant (Hadamard, optimallY Packing, Entropy Rice-coding), a unified post-training quantization pipeline for the weights and the KV cache of large language and diffusion transformers. Across a suite of self-contained experiments (Table 1), HyperQuant outperforms the recent HIGGS scheme at every operating point from 3 to 5 bits per scalar (bps) on weights, and beats both TurboQuant and OCTOPUS on KV quantization down to 1.7 bps. Beyond the LLM setting, HyperQuant quantizes the 19B-parameter LTX-2 DiT video model with no observable per-frame artifacts. End-to-end on an H100 at 4 bps, HyperQuant compresses the linear weights ~3.9x and the KV cache ~3.79x at near-lossless quality. HyperQuant combines four known ideas into a single construction: (i) a per-tile Randomized Hadamard Transform that makes the per-coordinate distribution of weights and activations approximately Gaussian; (ii) quantization to a low-dimensional optimal lattice (E8, D4, A2, or Z); (iii) lossless bit-stripping and near-entropy-optimal variable-length Rice coding of the lattice indices; and (iv) bias-correction methods for the KV cache that keep the reconstruction unbiased under inner products, preserving attention semantics. We further integrate the pipeline with 8-bit and 4-bit Tensor-Core MMA paths (fp8-e4m3, int8, nvfp4, mxfp4), and find that int8 beats fp8 on the post-RHT lattice output. Project page: https://moonmath.ai/hyperquant/

Finding the mode of a high dimensional probability distribution D is a fundamental algorithmic problem in statistics and data analysis. There has been particular interest in efficient methods for solving the problem when D is represented as a mixture model or kernel density estimate, although few algorithmic results with worst-case approximation and runtime guarantees are known. In this work, we significantly generalize a result of (LeeLiMusco:2021) on mode approximation for Gaussian mixture models. We develop randomized dimensionality reduction methods for mixtures involving a broader class of kernels, including the popular logistic, sigmoid, and generalized Gaussian kernels. As in Lee et al.'s work, our dimensionality reduction results yield quasi-polynomial algorithms for mode finding with multiplicative accuracy (1-epsilon) for any epsilon > 0. Moreover, when combined with gradient descent, they yield efficient practical heuristics for the problem. In addition to our positive results, we prove a hardness result for box kernels, showing that there is no polynomial time algorithm for finding the mode of a kernel density estimate, unless P = NP. Obtaining similar hardness results for kernels used in practice (like Gaussian or logistic kernels) is an interesting future direction.

We investigate stochastic combinatorial semi-bandits, where the entire joint distribution of outcomes impacts the complexity of the problem instance (unlike in the standard bandits). Typical distributions considered depend on specific parameter values, whose prior knowledge is required in theory but quite difficult to estimate in practice; an example is the commonly assumed sub-Gaussian family. We alleviate this issue by instead considering a new general family of sub-exponential distributions, which contains bounded and Gaussian ones. We prove a new lower bound on the expected regret on this family, that is parameterized by the unknown covariance matrix of outcomes, a tighter quantity than the sub-Gaussian matrix. We then construct an algorithm that uses covariance estimates, and provide a tight asymptotic analysis of the regret. Finally, we apply and extend our results to the family of sparse outcomes, which has applications in many recommender systems.

Gaussian processes (GP) are a well studied Bayesian approach for the optimization of black-box functions. Despite their effectiveness in simple problems, GP-based algorithms hardly scale to high-dimensional functions, as their per-iteration time and space cost is at least quadratic in the number of dimensions d and iterations t. Given a set of A alternatives to choose from, the overall runtime O(t^3A) is prohibitive. In this paper we introduce BKB (budgeted kernelized bandit), a new approximate GP algorithm for optimization under bandit feedback that achieves near-optimal regret (and hence near-optimal convergence rate) with near-constant per-iteration complexity and remarkably no assumption on the input space or covariance of the GP. We combine a kernelized linear bandit algorithm (GP-UCB) with randomized matrix sketching based on leverage score sampling, and we prove that randomly sampling inducing points based on their posterior variance gives an accurate low-rank approximation of the GP, preserving variance estimates and confidence intervals. As a consequence, BKB does not suffer from variance starvation, an important problem faced by many previous sparse GP approximations. Moreover, we show that our procedure selects at most O(d_{eff}) points, where d_{eff} is the effective dimension of the explored space, which is typically much smaller than both d and t. This greatly reduces the dimensionality of the problem, thus leading to a O(TAd_{eff}^2) runtime and O(A d_{eff}) space complexity.

In this work, we derive sharp non-asymptotic deviation bounds for weighted sums of Dirichlet random variables. These bounds are based on a novel integral representation of the density of a weighted Dirichlet sum. This representation allows us to obtain a Gaussian-like approximation for the sum distribution using geometry and complex analysis methods. Our results generalize similar bounds for the Beta distribution obtained in the seminal paper Alfers and Dinges [1984]. Additionally, our results can be considered a sharp non-asymptotic version of the inverse of Sanov's theorem studied by Ganesh and O'Connell [1999] in the Bayesian setting. Based on these results, we derive new deviation bounds for the Dirichlet process posterior means with application to Bayesian bootstrap. Finally, we apply our estimates to the analysis of the Multinomial Thompson Sampling (TS) algorithm in multi-armed bandits and significantly sharpen the existing regret bounds by making them independent of the size of the arms distribution support.

In learned image compression, probabilistic models play an essential role in characterizing the distribution of latent variables. The Gaussian model with mean and scale parameters has been widely used for its simplicity and effectiveness. Probabilistic models with more parameters, such as the Gaussian mixture models, can fit the distribution of latent variables more precisely, but the corresponding complexity will also be higher. To balance between compression performance and complexity, we extend the Gaussian model to the generalized Gaussian model for more flexible latent distribution modeling, introducing only one additional shape parameter, beta, than the Gaussian model. To enhance the performance of the generalized Gaussian model by alleviating the train-test mismatch, we propose improved training methods, including beta-dependent lower bounds for scale parameters and gradient rectification. Our proposed generalized Gaussian model, coupled with the improved training methods, is demonstrated to outperform the Gaussian and Gaussian mixture models on a variety of learned image compression methods.

We design efficient approximation algorithms for maximizing the expectation of the supremum of families of Gaussian random variables. In particular, let OPT:=max_{σ_1,cdots,σ_n}Eleft[sum_{j=1}^{m}max_{iin S_j} X_iright], where X_i are Gaussian, S_jsubset[n] and sum_iσ_i^2=1, then our theoretical results include: - We characterize the optimal variance allocation -- it concentrates on a small subset of variables as |S_j| increases, - A polynomial time approximation scheme (PTAS) for computing OPT when m=1, and - An O(log n) approximation algorithm for computing OPT for general m>1. Such expectation maximization problems occur in diverse applications, ranging from utility maximization in auctions markets to learning mixture models in quantitative genetics.

While score-based generative models (SGMs) have achieved remarkable success in enormous image generation tasks, their mathematical foundations are still limited. In this paper, we analyze the approximation and generalization of SGMs in learning a family of sub-Gaussian probability distributions. We introduce a notion of complexity for probability distributions in terms of their relative density with respect to the standard Gaussian measure. We prove that if the log-relative density can be locally approximated by a neural network whose parameters can be suitably bounded, then the distribution generated by empirical score matching approximates the target distribution in total variation with a dimension-independent rate. We illustrate our theory through examples, which include certain mixtures of Gaussians. An essential ingredient of our proof is to derive a dimension-free deep neural network approximation rate for the true score function associated with the forward process, which is interesting in its own right.

We study the task of agnostically learning halfspaces under the Gaussian distribution. Specifically, given labeled examples (x,y) from an unknown distribution on R^n times { pm 1}, whose marginal distribution on x is the standard Gaussian and the labels y can be arbitrary, the goal is to output a hypothesis with 0-1 loss OPT+epsilon, where OPT is the 0-1 loss of the best-fitting halfspace. We prove a near-optimal computational hardness result for this task, under the widely believed sub-exponential time hardness of the Learning with Errors (LWE) problem. Prior hardness results are either qualitatively suboptimal or apply to restricted families of algorithms. Our techniques extend to yield near-optimal lower bounds for related problems, including ReLU regression.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

We study the problem of learning mixtures of Gaussians with censored data. Statistical learning with censored data is a classical problem, with numerous practical applications, however, finite-sample guarantees for even simple latent variable models such as Gaussian mixtures are missing. Formally, we are given censored data from a mixture of univariate Gaussians $sum_{i=1}^k w_i N(mu_i,sigma^2), i.e. the sample is observed only if it lies inside a set S. The goal is to learn the weights w_i and the means \mu_i. We propose an algorithm that takes only 1{\varepsilon^{O(k)}} samples to estimate the weights w_i and the means \mu_i within \varepsilon$ error.

We give the first efficient algorithm for learning halfspaces in the testable learning model recently defined by Rubinfeld and Vasilyan (2023). In this model, a learner certifies that the accuracy of its output hypothesis is near optimal whenever the training set passes an associated test, and training sets drawn from some target distribution -- e.g., the Gaussian -- must pass the test. This model is more challenging than distribution-specific agnostic or Massart noise models where the learner is allowed to fail arbitrarily if the distributional assumption does not hold. We consider the setting where the target distribution is Gaussian (or more generally any strongly log-concave distribution) in d dimensions and the noise model is either Massart or adversarial (agnostic). For Massart noise, our tester-learner runs in polynomial time and outputs a hypothesis with (information-theoretically optimal) error opt + epsilon for any strongly log-concave target distribution. For adversarial noise, our tester-learner obtains error O(opt) + epsilon in polynomial time when the target distribution is Gaussian; for strongly log-concave distributions, we obtain O(opt) + epsilon in quasipolynomial time. Prior work on testable learning ignores the labels in the training set and checks that the empirical moments of the covariates are close to the moments of the base distribution. Here we develop new tests of independent interest that make critical use of the labels and combine them with the moment-matching approach of Gollakota et al. (2023). This enables us to simulate a variant of the algorithm of Diakonikolas et al. (2020) for learning noisy halfspaces using nonconvex SGD but in the testable learning setting.

We show how to turn any classifier that classifies well under Gaussian noise into a new classifier that is certifiably robust to adversarial perturbations under the ell_2 norm. This "randomized smoothing" technique has been proposed recently in the literature, but existing guarantees are loose. We prove a tight robustness guarantee in ell_2 norm for smoothing with Gaussian noise. We use randomized smoothing to obtain an ImageNet classifier with e.g. a certified top-1 accuracy of 49% under adversarial perturbations with ell_2 norm less than 0.5 (=127/255). No certified defense has been shown feasible on ImageNet except for smoothing. On smaller-scale datasets where competing approaches to certified ell_2 robustness are viable, smoothing delivers higher certified accuracies. Our strong empirical results suggest that randomized smoothing is a promising direction for future research into adversarially robust classification. Code and models are available at http://github.com/locuslab/smoothing.

According to the generalized Polya theorem, the Gaussian distribution on the real line is characterized by the property of equidistribution of a monomial and a linear form of independent identically distributed random variables. We give a complete description of a-adic solenoids for which an analog of this theorem is true. The proof of the main theorem is reduced to solving some functional equation in the class of continuous positive definite functions on the character group of an a-adic solenoid

We investigate stochastic combinatorial multi-armed bandit with semi-bandit feedback (CMAB). In CMAB, the question of the existence of an efficient policy with an optimal asymptotic regret (up to a factor poly-logarithmic with the action size) is still open for many families of distributions, including mutually independent outcomes, and more generally the multivariate sub-Gaussian family. We propose to answer the above question for these two families by analyzing variants of the Combinatorial Thompson Sampling policy (CTS). For mutually independent outcomes in [0,1], we propose a tight analysis of CTS using Beta priors. We then look at the more general setting of multivariate sub-Gaussian outcomes and propose a tight analysis of CTS using Gaussian priors. This last result gives us an alternative to the Efficient Sampling for Combinatorial Bandit policy (ESCB), which, although optimal, is not computationally efficient.

While 3D Gaussian Splatting has recently become popular for neural rendering, current methods rely on carefully engineered cloning and splitting strategies for placing Gaussians, which can lead to poor-quality renderings, and reliance on a good initialization. In this work, we rethink the set of 3D Gaussians as a random sample drawn from an underlying probability distribution describing the physical representation of the scene-in other words, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples. Under this view, we show that the 3D Gaussian updates can be converted as Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) updates by simply introducing noise. We then rewrite the densification and pruning strategies in 3D Gaussian Splatting as simply a deterministic state transition of MCMC samples, removing these heuristics from the framework. To do so, we revise the 'cloning' of Gaussians into a relocalization scheme that approximately preserves sample probability. To encourage efficient use of Gaussians, we introduce a regularizer that promotes the removal of unused Gaussians. On various standard evaluation scenes, we show that our method provides improved rendering quality, easy control over the number of Gaussians, and robustness to initialization.

Learning distribution families over R^d is a fundamental problem in unsupervised learning and statistics. A central question in this setting is whether a given family of distributions possesses sufficient structure to be (at least) information-theoretically learnable and, if so, to characterize its sample complexity. In 2018, Ashtiani et al. reframed sample compressibility, originally due to Littlestone and Warmuth (1986), as a structural property of distribution classes, proving that it guarantees PAC-learnability. This discovery subsequently enabled a series of recent advancements in deriving nearly tight sample complexity bounds for various high-dimensional open problems. It has been further conjectured that the converse also holds: every learnable class admits a tight sample compression scheme. In this work, we establish that sample compressible families remain learnable even from perturbed samples, subject to a set of necessary and sufficient conditions. We analyze two models of data perturbation: (i) an additive independent noise model, and (ii) an adversarial corruption model, where an adversary manipulates a limited subset of the samples unknown to the learner. Our results are general and rely on as minimal assumptions as possible. We develop a perturbation-quantization framework that interfaces naturally with the compression scheme and leads to sample complexity bounds that scale gracefully with the noise level and corruption budget. As concrete applications, we establish new sample complexity bounds for learning finite mixtures of high-dimensional uniform distributions under both noise and adversarial perturbations, as well as for learning Gaussian mixture models from adversarially corrupted samples, resolving two open problems in the literature.

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

Flow matching has emerged as a powerful generative modeling approach with flexible choices of source distribution. While Gaussian distributions are commonly used, the potential for better alternatives in high-dimensional data generation remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose a novel 2D simulation that captures high-dimensional geometric properties in an interpretable 2D setting, enabling us to analyze the learning dynamics of flow matching during training. Based on this analysis, we derive several key insights about flow matching behavior: (1) density approximation can paradoxically degrade performance due to mode discrepancy, (2) directional alignment suffers from path entanglement when overly concentrated, (3) Gaussian's omnidirectional coverage ensures robust learning, and (4) norm misalignment incurs substantial learning costs. Building on these insights, we propose a practical framework that combines norm-aligned training with directionally-pruned sampling. This approach maintains the robust omnidirectional supervision essential for stable flow learning, while eliminating initializations in data-sparse regions during inference. Importantly, our pruning strategy can be applied to any flow matching model trained with a Gaussian source, providing immediate performance gains without the need for retraining. Empirical evaluations demonstrate consistent improvements in both generation quality and sampling efficiency. Our findings provide practical insights and guidelines for source distribution design and introduce a readily applicable technique for improving existing flow matching models. Our code is available at https://github.com/kwanseokk/SourceFM.

Gaussian processes (GP) are one of the most successful frameworks to model uncertainty. However, GP optimization (e.g., GP-UCB) suffers from major scalability issues. Experimental time grows linearly with the number of evaluations, unless candidates are selected in batches (e.g., using GP-BUCB) and evaluated in parallel. Furthermore, computational cost is often prohibitive since algorithms such as GP-BUCB require a time at least quadratic in the number of dimensions and iterations to select each batch. In this paper, we introduce BBKB (Batch Budgeted Kernel Bandits), the first no-regret GP optimization algorithm that provably runs in near-linear time and selects candidates in batches. This is obtained with a new guarantee for the tracking of the posterior variances that allows BBKB to choose increasingly larger batches, improving over GP-BUCB. Moreover, we show that the same bound can be used to adaptively delay costly updates to the sparse GP approximation used by BBKB, achieving a near-constant per-step amortized cost. These findings are then confirmed in several experiments, where BBKB is much faster than state-of-the-art methods.

In this paper, we find a sample complexity bound for learning a simplex from noisy samples. Assume a dataset of size n is given which includes i.i.d. samples drawn from a uniform distribution over an unknown simplex in R^K, where samples are assumed to be corrupted by a multi-variate additive Gaussian noise of an arbitrary magnitude. We prove the existence of an algorithm that with high probability outputs a simplex having a ell_2 distance of at most varepsilon from the true simplex (for any varepsilon>0). Also, we theoretically show that in order to achieve this bound, it is sufficient to have ngeleft(K^2/varepsilon^2right)e^{Omegaleft(K/SNR^2right)} samples, where SNR stands for the signal-to-noise ratio. This result solves an important open problem and shows as long as SNRgeOmegaleft(K^{1/2}right), the sample complexity of the noisy regime has the same order to that of the noiseless case. Our proofs are a combination of the so-called sample compression technique in ashtiani2018nearly, mathematical tools from high-dimensional geometry, and Fourier analysis. In particular, we have proposed a general Fourier-based technique for recovery of a more general class of distribution families from additive Gaussian noise, which can be further used in a variety of other related problems.

Tangles were originally introduced as a concept to formalize regions of high connectivity in graphs. In recent years, they have also been discovered as a link between structural graph theory and data science: when interpreting similarity in data sets as connectivity between points, finding clusters in the data essentially amounts to finding tangles in the underlying graphs. This paper further explores the potential of tangles in data sets as a means for a formal study of clusters. Real-world data often follow a normal distribution. Accounting for this, we develop a quantitative theory of tangles in data sets drawn from Gaussian mixtures. To this end, we equip the data with a graph structure that models similarity between the points and allows us to apply tangle theory to the data. We provide explicit conditions under which tangles associated with the marginal Gaussian distributions exist asymptotically almost surely. This can be considered as a sufficient formal criterion for the separabability of clusters in the data.

Bayesian optimisation is a popular approach for optimising expensive black-box functions. The next location to be evaluated is selected via maximising an acquisition function that balances exploitation and exploration. Gaussian processes, the surrogate models of choice in Bayesian optimisation, are often used with a constant prior mean function equal to the arithmetic mean of the observed function values. We show that the rate of convergence can depend sensitively on the choice of mean function. We empirically investigate 8 mean functions (constant functions equal to the arithmetic mean, minimum, median and maximum of the observed function evaluations, linear, quadratic polynomials, random forests and RBF networks), using 10 synthetic test problems and two real-world problems, and using the Expected Improvement and Upper Confidence Bound acquisition functions. We find that for design dimensions ge5 using a constant mean function equal to the worst observed quality value is consistently the best choice on the synthetic problems considered. We argue that this worst-observed-quality function promotes exploitation leading to more rapid convergence. However, for the real-world tasks the more complex mean functions capable of modelling the fitness landscape may be effective, although there is no clearly optimum choice.

The infinitely wide neural network has been proven a useful and manageable mathematical model that enables the understanding of many phenomena appearing in deep learning. One example is the convergence of random deep networks to Gaussian processes that allows a rigorous analysis of the way the choice of activation function and network weights impacts the training dynamics. In this paper, we extend the seminal proof of Matthews et al. (2018) to a larger class of initial weight distributions (which we call PSEUDO-IID), including the established cases of IID and orthogonal weights, as well as the emerging low-rank and structured sparse settings celebrated for their computational speed-up benefits. We show that fully-connected and convolutional networks initialized with PSEUDO-IID distributions are all effectively equivalent up to their variance. Using our results, one can identify the Edge-of-Chaos for a broader class of neural networks and tune them at criticality in order to enhance their training. Moreover, they enable the posterior distribution of Bayesian Neural Networks to be tractable across these various initialization schemes.

Distances between probability distributions that take into account the geometry of their sample space,like the Wasserstein or the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) distances have received a lot of attention in machine learning as they can, for instance, be used to compare probability distributions with disjoint supports. In this paper, we study a class of statistical Hilbert distances that we term the Schoenberg-Rao distances, a generalization of the MMD that allows one to consider a broader class of kernels, namely the conditionally negative semi-definite kernels. In particular, we introduce a principled way to construct such kernels and derive novel closed-form distances between mixtures of Gaussian distributions. These distances, derived from the concave Rao's quadratic entropy, enjoy nice theoretical properties and possess interpretable hyperparameters which can be tuned for specific applications. Our method constitutes a practical alternative to Wasserstein distances and we illustrate its efficiency on a broad range of machine learning tasks such as density estimation, generative modeling and mixture simplification.

The modeling of probability distributions, specifically generative modeling and density estimation, has become an immensely popular subject in recent years by virtue of its outstanding performance on sophisticated data such as images and texts. Nevertheless, a theoretical understanding of its success is still incomplete. One mystery is the paradox between memorization and generalization: In theory, the model is trained to be exactly the same as the empirical distribution of the finite samples, whereas in practice, the trained model can generate new samples or estimate the likelihood of unseen samples. Likewise, the overwhelming diversity of distribution learning models calls for a unified perspective on this subject. This paper provides a mathematical framework such that all the well-known models can be derived based on simple principles. To demonstrate its efficacy, we present a survey of our results on the approximation error, training error and generalization error of these models, which can all be established based on this framework. In particular, the aforementioned paradox is resolved by proving that these models enjoy implicit regularization during training, so that the generalization error at early-stopping avoids the curse of dimensionality. Furthermore, we provide some new results on landscape analysis and the mode collapse phenomenon.

Ensembles of neural network weight matrices are studied through the training process for the MNIST classification problem, testing the efficacy of matrix models for representing their distributions, under assumptions of Gaussianity and permutation-symmetry. The general 13-parameter permutation invariant Gaussian matrix models are found to be effective models for the correlated Gaussianity in the weight matrices, beyond the range of applicability of the simple Gaussian with independent identically distributed matrix variables, and notably well beyond the initialisation step. The representation theoretic model parameters, and the graph-theoretic characterisation of the permutation invariant matrix observables give an interpretable framework for the best-fit model and for small departures from Gaussianity. Additionally, the Wasserstein distance is calculated for this class of models and used to quantify the movement of the distributions over training. Throughout the work, the effects of varied initialisation regimes, regularisation, layer depth, and layer width are tested for this formalism, identifying limits where particular departures from Gaussianity are enhanced and how more general, yet still highly-interpretable, models can be developed.

In recent years, 3D Gaussian splatting has emerged as a powerful technique for 3D reconstruction and generation, known for its fast and high-quality rendering capabilities. To address these shortcomings, this paper introduces a novel diffusion-based framework, GVGEN, designed to efficiently generate 3D Gaussian representations from text input. We propose two innovative techniques:(1) Structured Volumetric Representation. We first arrange disorganized 3D Gaussian points as a structured form GaussianVolume. This transformation allows the capture of intricate texture details within a volume composed of a fixed number of Gaussians. To better optimize the representation of these details, we propose a unique pruning and densifying method named the Candidate Pool Strategy, enhancing detail fidelity through selective optimization. (2) Coarse-to-fine Generation Pipeline. To simplify the generation of GaussianVolume and empower the model to generate instances with detailed 3D geometry, we propose a coarse-to-fine pipeline. It initially constructs a basic geometric structure, followed by the prediction of complete Gaussian attributes. Our framework, GVGEN, demonstrates superior performance in qualitative and quantitative assessments compared to existing 3D generation methods. Simultaneously, it maintains a fast generation speed (sim7 seconds), effectively striking a balance between quality and efficiency.

While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However, existing methods are often computationally expensive, or demand costly retraining when priors change, limiting their utility, particularly in sequential inference problems such as real-time sensor fusion. To address these challenges, we introduce the Distribution Transformer -- a novel architecture that can learn arbitrary distribution-to-distribution mappings. Our method can be trained to map a prior to the corresponding posterior, conditioned on some dataset -- thus performing approximate Bayesian inference. Our novel architecture represents a prior distribution as a (universally-approximating) Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and transforms it into a GMM representation of the posterior. The components of the GMM attend to each other via self-attention, and to the datapoints via cross-attention. We demonstrate that Distribution Transformers both maintain flexibility to vary the prior, and significantly reduces computation times-from minutes to milliseconds-while achieving log-likelihood performance on par with or superior to existing approximate inference methods across tasks such as sequential inference, quantum system parameter inference, and Gaussian Process predictive posterior inference with hyperpriors.

By learning the gradient of smoothed data distributions, diffusion models can iteratively generate samples from complex distributions. The learned score function enables their generalization capabilities, but how the learned score relates to the score of the underlying data manifold remains largely unclear. Here, we aim to elucidate this relationship by comparing learned neural scores to the scores of two kinds of analytically tractable distributions: Gaussians and Gaussian mixtures. The simplicity of the Gaussian model makes it theoretically attractive, and we show that it admits a closed-form solution and predicts many qualitative aspects of sample generation dynamics. We claim that the learned neural score is dominated by its linear (Gaussian) approximation for moderate to high noise scales, and supply both theoretical and empirical arguments to support this claim. Moreover, the Gaussian approximation empirically works for a larger range of noise scales than naive theory suggests it should, and is preferentially learned early in training. At smaller noise scales, we observe that learned scores are better described by a coarse-grained (Gaussian mixture) approximation of training data than by the score of the training distribution, a finding consistent with generalization. Our findings enable us to precisely predict the initial phase of trained models' sampling trajectories through their Gaussian approximations. We show that this allows the skipping of the first 15-30% of sampling steps while maintaining high sample quality (with a near state-of-the-art FID score of 1.93 on CIFAR-10 unconditional generation). This forms the foundation of a novel hybrid sampling method, termed analytical teleportation, which can seamlessly integrate with and accelerate existing samplers, including DPM-Solver-v3 and UniPC. Our findings suggest ways to improve the design and training of diffusion models.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are popular nonparametric statistical models for learning unknown functions and quantifying the spatiotemporal uncertainty in data. Recent works have extended GPs to model scalar and vector quantities distributed over non-Euclidean domains, including smooth manifolds appearing in numerous fields such as computer vision, dynamical systems, and neuroscience. However, these approaches assume that the manifold underlying the data is known, limiting their practical utility. We introduce RVGP, a generalisation of GPs for learning vector signals over latent Riemannian manifolds. Our method uses positional encoding with eigenfunctions of the connection Laplacian, associated with the tangent bundle, readily derived from common graph-based approximation of data. We demonstrate that RVGP possesses global regularity over the manifold, which allows it to super-resolve and inpaint vector fields while preserving singularities. Furthermore, we use RVGP to reconstruct high-density neural dynamics derived from low-density EEG recordings in healthy individuals and Alzheimer's patients. We show that vector field singularities are important disease markers and that their reconstruction leads to a comparable classification accuracy of disease states to high-density recordings. Thus, our method overcomes a significant practical limitation in experimental and clinical applications.

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

Certain tasks in high-dimensional statistics become easier when the underlying distribution satisfies a local-to-global property called approximate tensorization of entropy (ATE). For example, the Glauber dynamics Markov chain of an ATE distribution mixes fast and can produce approximate samples in a small amount of time, since such a distribution satisfies a modified log-Sobolev inequality. Moreover, identity-testing for an ATE distribution requires few samples if the tester is given coordinate conditional access to the unknown distribution, as shown by Blanca, Chen, Štefankovič, and Vigoda (COLT 2023). A natural class of distributions that do not satisfy ATE consists of mixtures of (few) distributions that do satisfy ATE. We study the complexity of identity-testing and sampling for these distributions. Our main results are the following: 1. We show fast mixing of Glauber dynamics from a data-based initialization, with optimal sample complexity, for mixtures of distributions satisfying modified log-Sobolev inequalities. This extends work of Huang, Koehler, Lee, Mohanty, Rajaraman, Vuong, and Wu (STOC 2025, COLT 2025) for mixtures of distributions satisfying Poincaré inequalities. 2. Answering an open question posed by Blanca et al., we give efficient identity-testers for mixtures of ATE distributions in the coordinate-conditional sampling access model. We also give some simplifications and improvements to the original algorithm of Blanca et al.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

We show via a combination of mathematical arguments and empirical evidence that data distributions sampled from diffusion models satisfy a Concentration of Measure Property saying that any Lipschitz 1-dimensional projection of a random vector is not too far from its mean with high probability. This implies that such models are quite restrictive and gives an explanation for a fact previously observed in the literature that conventional diffusion models cannot capture "heavy-tailed" data (i.e. data x for which the norm |x|_2 does not possess a sub-Gaussian tail) well. We then proceed to train a generalized linear model using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on the diffusion-generated data for a multiclass classification task and observe empirically that a Gaussian universality result holds for the test error. In other words, the test error depends only on the first and second order statistics of the diffusion-generated data in the linear setting. Results of such forms are desirable because they allow one to assume the data itself is Gaussian for analyzing performance of the trained classifier. Finally, we note that current approaches to proving universality do not apply to this case as the covariance matrices of the data tend to have vanishing minimum singular values for the diffusion-generated data, while the current proofs assume that this is not the case (see Subsection 3.4 for more details). This leaves extending previous mathematical universality results as an intriguing open question.

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's t distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we demonstrate Student's t specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4\% of cases. Bounded probability-weighting transformations preserve mathematical properties required for dynamic pricing. Gaussian models underestimate 99\% Value-at-Risk by 19.7\% versus 3.2\% for our specification. Joint estimation procedures identify tail and behavioral parameters with established asymptotic properties. Results provide robust inference for asset-pricing applications where heavy tails and behavioral distortions coexist.

This manuscript considers the problem of learning a random Gaussian network function using a fully connected network with frozen intermediate layers and trainable readout layer. This problem can be seen as a natural generalization of the widely studied random features model to deeper architectures. First, we prove Gaussian universality of the test error in a ridge regression setting where the learner and target networks share the same intermediate layers, and provide a sharp asymptotic formula for it. Establishing this result requires proving a deterministic equivalent for traces of the deep random features sample covariance matrices which can be of independent interest. Second, we conjecture the asymptotic Gaussian universality of the test error in the more general setting of arbitrary convex losses and generic learner/target architectures. We provide extensive numerical evidence for this conjecture, which requires the derivation of closed-form expressions for the layer-wise post-activation population covariances. In light of our results, we investigate the interplay between architecture design and implicit regularization.

A neural architecture with randomly initialized weights, in the infinite width limit, is equivalent to a Gaussian Random Field whose covariance function is the so-called Neural Network Gaussian Process kernel (NNGP). We prove that a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) defined by the NNGP contains only functions that can be approximated by the architecture. To achieve a certain approximation error the required number of neurons in each layer is defined by the RKHS norm of the target function. Moreover, the approximation can be constructed from a supervised dataset by a random multi-layer representation of an input vector, together with training of the last layer's weights. For a 2-layer NN and a domain equal to an n-1-dimensional sphere in {mathbb R}^n, we compare the number of neurons required by Barron's theorem and by the multi-layer features construction. We show that if eigenvalues of the integral operator of the NNGP decay slower than k^{-n-2{3}} where k is an order of an eigenvalue, then our theorem guarantees a more succinct neural network approximation than Barron's theorem. We also make some computational experiments to verify our theoretical findings. Our experiments show that realistic neural networks easily learn target functions even when both theorems do not give any guarantees.

We propose a new approach for propagating stable probability distributions through neural networks. Our method is based on local linearization, which we show to be an optimal approximation in terms of total variation distance for the ReLU non-linearity. This allows propagating Gaussian and Cauchy input uncertainties through neural networks to quantify their output uncertainties. To demonstrate the utility of propagating distributions, we apply the proposed method to predicting calibrated confidence intervals and selective prediction on out-of-distribution data. The results demonstrate a broad applicability of propagating distributions and show the advantages of our method over other approaches such as moment matching.

In this review, we present econometric and statistical methods for analyzing randomized experiments. For basic experiments we stress randomization-based inference as opposed to sampling-based inference. In randomization-based inference, uncertainty in estimates arises naturally from the random assignment of the treatments, rather than from hypothesized sampling from a large population. We show how this perspective relates to regression analyses for randomized experiments. We discuss the analyses of stratified, paired, and clustered randomized experiments, and we stress the general efficiency gains from stratification. We also discuss complications in randomized experiments such as non-compliance. In the presence of non-compliance we contrast intention-to-treat analyses with instrumental variables analyses allowing for general treatment effect heterogeneity. We consider in detail estimation and inference for heterogeneous treatment effects in settings with (possibly many) covariates. These methods allow researchers to explore heterogeneity by identifying subpopulations with different treatment effects while maintaining the ability to construct valid confidence intervals. We also discuss optimal assignment to treatment based on covariates in such settings. Finally, we discuss estimation and inference in experiments in settings with interactions between units, both in general network settings and in settings where the population is partitioned into groups with all interactions contained within these groups.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

To achieve scalable and accurate inference for latent Gaussian processes, we propose a variational approximation based on a family of Gaussian distributions whose covariance matrices have sparse inverse Cholesky (SIC) factors. We combine this variational approximation of the posterior with a similar and efficient SIC-restricted Kullback-Leibler-optimal approximation of the prior. We then focus on a particular SIC ordering and nearest-neighbor-based sparsity pattern resulting in highly accurate prior and posterior approximations. For this setting, our variational approximation can be computed via stochastic gradient descent in polylogarithmic time per iteration. We provide numerical comparisons showing that the proposed double-Kullback-Leibler-optimal Gaussian-process approximation (DKLGP) can sometimes be vastly more accurate for stationary kernels than alternative approaches such as inducing-point and mean-field approximations at similar computational complexity.

Region-of-Interest (ROI)-based image compression allocates bits unevenly according to the semantic importance of different regions. Such differentiated coding typically induces a sharp-peaked and heavy-tailed distribution. This distribution characteristic mathematically necessitates a probability model with adaptable shape parameters for accurate description. However, existing methods commonly use a Gaussian model to fit this distribution, resulting in a loss of coding performance. To systematically analyze the impact of this distribution on ROI coding, we develop a unified rate-distortion optimization theoretical paradigm. Building on this paradigm, we propose a novel Generalized Gaussian Model (GGM) to achieve flexible modeling of the latent variables distribution. To support stable optimization of GGM, we introduce effective differentiable functions and further propose a dynamic lower bound to alleviate train-test mismatch. Moreover, finite differences are introduced to solve the gradient computation after GGM fits the distribution. Experiments on COCO2017 demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art in both ROI reconstruction and downstream tasks (e.g., Segmentation, Object Detection). Furthermore, compared to classical probability models, our GGM provides a more precise fit to feature distributions and achieves superior coding performance. The project page is at https://github.com/hukai-tju/ROIGGM.

We introduce in this paper the mechanism of graph random features (GRFs). GRFs can be used to construct unbiased randomized estimators of several important kernels defined on graphs' nodes, in particular the regularized Laplacian kernel. As regular RFs for non-graph kernels, they provide means to scale up kernel methods defined on graphs to larger networks. Importantly, they give substantial computational gains also for smaller graphs, while applied in downstream applications. Consequently, GRFs address the notoriously difficult problem of cubic (in the number of the nodes of the graph) time complexity of graph kernels algorithms. We provide a detailed theoretical analysis of GRFs and an extensive empirical evaluation: from speed tests, through Frobenius relative error analysis to kmeans graph-clustering with graph kernels. We show that the computation of GRFs admits an embarrassingly simple distributed algorithm that can be applied if the graph under consideration needs to be split across several machines. We also introduce a (still unbiased) quasi Monte Carlo variant of GRFs, q-GRFs, relying on the so-called reinforced random walks, that might be used to optimize the variance of GRFs. As a byproduct, we obtain a novel approach to solve certain classes of linear equations with positive and symmetric matrices.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

We study an algorithm-independent, worst-case lower bound for the Gaussian process (GP) bandit problem in the frequentist setting, where the reward function is fixed and has a bounded norm in the known reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). Specifically, we focus on the squared exponential (SE) kernel, one of the most widely used kernel functions in GP bandits. One of the remaining open questions for this problem is the gap in the dimension-dependent logarithmic factors between upper and lower bounds. This paper partially resolves this open question under a hyperspherical input domain. We show that any algorithm suffers Ω(T (ln T)^{d (ln ln T)^{-d}}) cumulative regret, where T and d represent the total number of steps and the dimension of the hyperspherical domain, respectively. Regarding the simple regret, we show that any algorithm requires Ω(ε^{-2}(ln 1ε)^d (ln ln 1ε)^{-d}) time steps to find an ε-optimal point. We also provide the improved O((ln T)^{d+1}(ln ln T)^{-d}) upper bound on the maximum information gain for the SE kernel. Our results guarantee the optimality of the existing best algorithm up to dimension-independent logarithmic factors under a hyperspherical input domain.

Generative Models (GMs) have attracted considerable attention due to their tremendous success in various domains, such as computer vision where they are capable to generate impressive realistic-looking images. Likelihood-based GMs are attractive due to the possibility to generate new data by a single model evaluation. However, they typically achieve lower sample quality compared to state-of-the-art score-based diffusion models (DMs). This paper provides a significant step in the direction of addressing this limitation. The idea is to borrow one of the strengths of score-based DMs, which is the ability to perform accurate density estimation in low-density regions and to address manifold overfitting by means of data mollification. We connect data mollification through the addition of Gaussian noise to Gaussian homotopy, which is a well-known technique to improve optimization. Data mollification can be implemented by adding one line of code in the optimization loop, and we demonstrate that this provides a boost in generation quality of likelihood-based GMs, without computational overheads. We report results on image data sets with popular likelihood-based GMs, including variants of variational autoencoders and normalizing flows, showing large improvements in FID score.

This paper introduces a structural equation formulation that gives rise to a new family of quasi-periodic Gaussian processes, useful to process a broad class of natural and physiological signals. The proposed formulation simplifies generation and forecasting, and provides hyperparameter estimates, which we exploit in a convergent and consistent iterative estimation algorithm. A bootstrap approach for standard error estimation and confidence intervals is also provided. We demonstrate the computational and scaling benefits of the proposed approach on a broad class of problems, including water level tidal analysis, CO_{2} emission data, and sunspot numbers data. By leveraging the structural equations, our method reduces the cost of likelihood evaluations and predictions from O(k^2 p^2) to O(p^2), significantly improving scalability.

Machine learning based solvers have garnered much attention in physical simulation and scientific computing, with a prominent example, physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). However, PINNs often struggle to solve high-frequency and multi-scale PDEs, which can be due to spectral bias during neural network training. To address this problem, we resort to the Gaussian process (GP) framework. To flexibly capture the dominant frequencies, we model the power spectrum of the PDE solution with a student t mixture or Gaussian mixture. We apply the inverse Fourier transform to obtain the covariance function (by Wiener-Khinchin theorem). The covariance derived from the Gaussian mixture spectrum corresponds to the known spectral mixture kernel. Next, we estimate the mixture weights in the log domain, which we show is equivalent to placing a Jeffreys prior. It automatically induces sparsity, prunes excessive frequencies, and adjusts the remaining toward the ground truth. Third, to enable efficient and scalable computation on massive collocation points, which are critical to capture high frequencies, we place the collocation points on a grid, and multiply our covariance function at each input dimension. We use the GP conditional mean to predict the solution and its derivatives so as to fit the boundary condition and the equation itself. As a result, we can derive a Kronecker product structure in the covariance matrix. We use Kronecker product properties and multilinear algebra to promote computational efficiency and scalability, without low-rank approximations. We show the advantage of our method in systematic experiments. The code is released at https://github.com/xuangu-fang/Gaussian-Process-Slover-for-High-Freq-PDE.

This work derives methods for performing nonparametric, nonasymptotic statistical inference for population means under the constraint of local differential privacy (LDP). Given bounded observations (X_1, dots, X_n) with mean mu^star that are privatized into (Z_1, dots, Z_n), we present confidence intervals (CI) and time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for mu^star when only given access to the privatized data. To achieve this, we introduce a nonparametric and sequentially interactive generalization of Warner's famous ``randomized response'' mechanism, satisfying LDP for arbitrary bounded random variables, and then provide CIs and CSs for their means given access to the resulting privatized observations. For example, our results yield private analogues of Hoeffding's inequality in both fixed-time and time-uniform regimes. We extend these Hoeffding-type CSs to capture time-varying (non-stationary) means, and conclude by illustrating how these methods can be used to conduct private online A/B tests.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

In this manuscript we consider the problem of generalized linear estimation on Gaussian mixture data with labels given by a single-index model. Our first result is a sharp asymptotic expression for the test and training errors in the high-dimensional regime. Motivated by the recent stream of results on the Gaussian universality of the test and training errors in generalized linear estimation, we ask ourselves the question: "when is a single Gaussian enough to characterize the error?". Our formula allow us to give sharp answers to this question, both in the positive and negative directions. More precisely, we show that the sufficient conditions for Gaussian universality (or lack of thereof) crucially depend on the alignment between the target weights and the means and covariances of the mixture clusters, which we precisely quantify. In the particular case of least-squares interpolation, we prove a strong universality property of the training error, and show it follows a simple, closed-form expression. Finally, we apply our results to real datasets, clarifying some recent discussion in the literature about Gaussian universality of the errors in this context.

This paper provides a non-asymptotic analysis of linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithms with fixed stepsize. This family of methods arises in many machine learning tasks and is used to obtain approximate solutions of a linear system Atheta = b for which A and b can only be accessed through random estimates {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*}. Our analysis is based on new results regarding moments and high probability bounds for products of matrices which are shown to be tight. We derive high probability bounds on the performance of LSA under weaker conditions on the sequence {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*} than previous works. However, in contrast, we establish polynomial concentration bounds with order depending on the stepsize. We show that our conclusions cannot be improved without additional assumptions on the sequence of random matrices {{bf A}_n: n in N^*}, and in particular that no Gaussian or exponential high probability bounds can hold. Finally, we pay a particular attention to establishing bounds with sharp order with respect to the number of iterations and the stepsize and whose leading terms contain the covariance matrices appearing in the central limit theorems.

Given time series data, how can we answer questions like "what will happen in the future?" and "how did we get here?" These sorts of probabilistic inference questions are challenging when observations are high-dimensional. In this paper, we show how these questions can have compact, closed form solutions in terms of learned representations. The key idea is to apply a variant of contrastive learning to time series data. Prior work already shows that the representations learned by contrastive learning encode a probability ratio. By extending prior work to show that the marginal distribution over representations is Gaussian, we can then prove that joint distribution of representations is also Gaussian. Taken together, these results show that representations learned via temporal contrastive learning follow a Gauss-Markov chain, a graphical model where inference (e.g., prediction, planning) over representations corresponds to inverting a low-dimensional matrix. In one special case, inferring intermediate representations will be equivalent to interpolating between the learned representations. We validate our theory using numerical simulations on tasks up to 46-dimensions.

We initiate the study of proper losses for evaluating generative models in the discrete setting. Unlike traditional proper losses, we treat both the generative model and the target distribution as black-boxes, only assuming ability to draw i.i.d. samples. We define a loss to be black-box proper if the generative distribution that minimizes expected loss is equal to the target distribution. Using techniques from statistical estimation theory, we give a general construction and characterization of black-box proper losses: they must take a polynomial form, and the number of draws from the model and target distribution must exceed the degree of the polynomial. The characterization rules out a loss whose expectation is the cross-entropy between the target distribution and the model. By extending the construction to arbitrary sampling schemes such as Poisson sampling, however, we show that one can construct such a loss.

Learning in Gaussian Process models occurs through the adaptation of hyperparameters of the mean and the covariance function. The classical approach entails maximizing the marginal likelihood yielding fixed point estimates (an approach called Type II maximum likelihood or ML-II). An alternative learning procedure is to infer the posterior over hyperparameters in a hierarchical specification of GPs we call Fully Bayesian Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). This work considers two approximation schemes for the intractable hyperparameter posterior: 1) Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) yielding a sampling-based approximation and 2) Variational Inference (VI) where the posterior over hyperparameters is approximated by a factorized Gaussian (mean-field) or a full-rank Gaussian accounting for correlations between hyperparameters. We analyze the predictive performance for fully Bayesian GPR on a range of benchmark data sets.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

Variational inference using the reparameterization trick has enabled large-scale approximate Bayesian inference in complex probabilistic models, leveraging stochastic optimization to sidestep intractable expectations. The reparameterization trick is applicable when we can simulate a random variable by applying a differentiable deterministic function on an auxiliary random variable whose distribution is fixed. For many distributions of interest (such as the gamma or Dirichlet), simulation of random variables relies on acceptance-rejection sampling. The discontinuity introduced by the accept-reject step means that standard reparameterization tricks are not applicable. We propose a new method that lets us leverage reparameterization gradients even when variables are outputs of a acceptance-rejection sampling algorithm. Our approach enables reparameterization on a larger class of variational distributions. In several studies of real and synthetic data, we show that the variance of the estimator of the gradient is significantly lower than other state-of-the-art methods. This leads to faster convergence of stochastic gradient variational inference.

Recently, 3D Gaussian splatting (3D-GS) has achieved great success in reconstructing and rendering real-world scenes. To transfer the high rendering quality to generation tasks, a series of research works attempt to generate 3D-Gaussian assets from text. However, the generated assets have not achieved the same quality as those in reconstruction tasks. We observe that Gaussians tend to grow without control as the generation process may cause indeterminacy. Aiming at highly enhancing the generation quality, we propose a novel framework named GaussianDreamerPro. The main idea is to bind Gaussians to reasonable geometry, which evolves over the whole generation process. Along different stages of our framework, both the geometry and appearance can be enriched progressively. The final output asset is constructed with 3D Gaussians bound to mesh, which shows significantly enhanced details and quality compared with previous methods. Notably, the generated asset can also be seamlessly integrated into downstream manipulation pipelines, e.g. animation, composition, and simulation etc., greatly promoting its potential in wide applications. Demos are available at https://taoranyi.com/gaussiandreamerpro/.

The kernel thinning (KT) algorithm of Dwivedi and Mackey (2021) compresses a probability distribution more effectively than independent sampling by targeting a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and leveraging a less smooth square-root kernel. Here we provide four improvements. First, we show that KT applied directly to the target RKHS yields tighter, dimension-free guarantees for any kernel, any distribution, and any fixed function in the RKHS. Second, we show that, for analytic kernels like Gaussian, inverse multiquadric, and sinc, target KT admits maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) guarantees comparable to or better than those of square-root KT without making explicit use of a square-root kernel. Third, we prove that KT with a fractional power kernel yields better-than-Monte-Carlo MMD guarantees for non-smooth kernels, like Laplace and Mat\'ern, that do not have square-roots. Fourth, we establish that KT applied to a sum of the target and power kernels (a procedure we call KT+) simultaneously inherits the improved MMD guarantees of power KT and the tighter individual function guarantees of target KT. In our experiments with target KT and KT+, we witness significant improvements in integration error even in 100 dimensions and when compressing challenging differential equation posteriors.

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring click-through rates for different demographic groups. The most standard approach is to report the plain average of each outcome. Despite simplicity, the estimates are noisy when the sample sizes or mean parameters are small. In contrast, the Empirical Bayes (EB) methods are able to boost the average accuracy by borrowing information across tasks. Nevertheless, the EB methods require a Bayesian model where the parameters are sampled from a prior distribution which, unlike the commonly-studied Gaussian case, is unidentified due to discreteness of binomial measurements. Even if the prior distribution is known, the computation is difficult when the sample sizes are heterogeneous as there is no simple joint conjugate prior for the sample size and mean parameter. In this paper, we consider the compound decision framework which treats the sample size and mean parameters as fixed quantities. We develop an approximate Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) for the average mean squared error given any class of estimators. For a class of machine learning-assisted linear shrinkage estimators, we establish asymptotic optimality, regret bounds, and valid inference. Unlike existing work, we work with the binomials directly without resorting to Gaussian approximations. This allows us to work with small sample sizes and/or mean parameters in both one-sample and two-sample settings. We demonstrate our approach using three datasets on firm discrimination, education outcomes, and innovation rates.

We analyse linear ensemble sampling (ES) with standard Gaussian perturbations in stochastic linear bandits. We show that for ensemble size m=Θ(dlog n), ES attains tilde O(d^{3/2}sqrt n) high-probability regret, closing the gap to the Thompson sampling benchmark while keeping computation comparable. The proof brings a new perspective on randomized exploration in linear bandits by reducing the analysis to a time-uniform exceedance problem for m independent Brownian motions. Intriguingly, this continuous-time lens is not forced; it appears natural--and perhaps necessary: the discrete-time problem seems to be asking for a continuous-time solution, and we know of no other way to obtain a sharp ES bound.

In this paper we develop a dynamic form of Bayesian optimization for machine learning models with the goal of rapidly finding good hyperparameter settings. Our method uses the partial information gained during the training of a machine learning model in order to decide whether to pause training and start a new model, or resume the training of a previously-considered model. We specifically tailor our method to machine learning problems by developing a novel positive-definite covariance kernel to capture a variety of training curves. Furthermore, we develop a Gaussian process prior that scales gracefully with additional temporal observations. Finally, we provide an information-theoretic framework to automate the decision process. Experiments on several common machine learning models show that our approach is extremely effective in practice.

We study the classic Text-to-Pattern Hamming Distances problem: given a pattern P of length m and a text T of length n, both over a polynomial-size alphabet, compute the Hamming distance between P and T[i, ., . , i+m-1] for every shift i, under the standard Word-RAM model with Theta(log n)-bit words. - We provide an O(nm) time Las Vegas randomized algorithm for this problem, beating the decades-old O(n m log m) running time [Abrahamson, SICOMP 1987]. We also obtain a deterministic algorithm, with a slightly higher O(nm(log mloglog m)^{1/4}) running time. Our randomized algorithm extends to the k-bounded setting, with running time Obig(n+nk{m}big), removing all the extra logarithmic factors from earlier algorithms [Gawrychowski and Uzna\'{n}ski, ICALP 2018; Chan, Golan, Kociumaka, Kopelowitz and Porat, STOC 2020]. - For the (1+epsilon)-approximate version of Text-to-Pattern Hamming Distances, we give an O(epsilon^{-0.93}n) time Monte Carlo randomized algorithm, beating the previous O(epsilon^{-1}n) running time [Kopelowitz and Porat, FOCS 2015; Kopelowitz and Porat, SOSA 2018]. Our approximation algorithm exploits a connection with 3SUM, and uses a combination of Fredman's trick, equality matrix product, and random sampling; in particular, we obtain new results on approximate counting versions of 3SUM and Exact Triangle, which may be of independent interest. Our exact algorithms use a novel combination of hashing, bit-packed FFT, and recursion; in particular, we obtain a faster algorithm for computing the sumset of two integer sets, in the regime when the universe size is close to quadratic in the number of elements. We also prove a fine-grained equivalence between the exact Text-to-Pattern Hamming Distances problem and a range-restricted, counting version of 3SUM.

We propose a new class of random feature methods for linearizing softmax and Gaussian kernels called hybrid random features (HRFs) that automatically adapt the quality of kernel estimation to provide most accurate approximation in the defined regions of interest. Special instantiations of HRFs lead to well-known methods such as trigonometric (Rahimi and Recht, 2007) or (recently introduced in the context of linear-attention Transformers) positive random features (Choromanski et al., 2021). By generalizing Bochner's Theorem for softmax/Gaussian kernels and leveraging random features for compositional kernels, the HRF-mechanism provides strong theoretical guarantees - unbiased approximation and strictly smaller worst-case relative errors than its counterparts. We conduct exhaustive empirical evaluation of HRF ranging from pointwise kernel estimation experiments, through tests on data admitting clustering structure to benchmarking implicit-attention Transformers (also for downstream Robotics applications), demonstrating its quality in a wide spectrum of machine learning problems.

Recent successful generative models are trained by fitting a neural network to an a-priori defined tractable probability density path taking noise to training examples. In this paper we investigate the space of Gaussian probability paths, which includes diffusion paths as an instance, and look for an optimal member in some useful sense. In particular, minimizing the Kinetic Energy (KE) of a path is known to make particles' trajectories simple, hence easier to sample, and empirically improve performance in terms of likelihood of unseen data and sample generation quality. We investigate Kinetic Optimal (KO) Gaussian paths and offer the following observations: (i) We show the KE takes a simplified form on the space of Gaussian paths, where the data is incorporated only through a single, one dimensional scalar function, called the data separation function. (ii) We characterize the KO solutions with a one dimensional ODE. (iii) We approximate data-dependent KO paths by approximating the data separation function and minimizing the KE. (iv) We prove that the data separation function converges to 1 in the general case of arbitrary normalized dataset consisting of n samples in d dimension as n/drightarrow 0. A consequence of this result is that the Conditional Optimal Transport (Cond-OT) path becomes kinetic optimal as n/drightarrow 0. We further support this theory with empirical experiments on ImageNet.

We define a probabilistic programming language for Gaussian random variables with a first-class exact conditioning construct. We give operational, denotational and equational semantics for this language, establishing convenient properties like exchangeability of conditions. Conditioning on equality of continuous random variables is nontrivial, as the exact observation may have probability zero; this is Borel's paradox. Using categorical formulations of conditional probability, we show that the good properties of our language are not particular to Gaussians, but can be derived from universal properties, thus generalizing to wider settings. We define the Cond construction, which internalizes conditioning as a morphism, providing general compositional semantics for probabilistic programming with exact conditioning.

We study the deterministic global optimization of trained Gaussian process posterior mean functions over hyperrectangular domains. Although the posterior mean function has a compact closed-form representation, its global optimization is challenging because it remains nonlinear and nonconvex. Existing exact deterministic approaches become increasingly difficult to scale as the number of training data points grows, leading to approximation-based methods that improve tractability by optimizing a modified (inexact) objective. In this work, we propose PALM-Mean, a piecewise-analytic lower-bounding framework embedded in reduced-space spatial branch-and-bound. At each node, kernel terms that are locally important are replaced by a sign-aware piecewise-linear relaxation in an appropriate scalar distance variable, while the remaining terms are bounded analytically in closed form. We show this hybrid approach yields a valid lower bound for the posterior mean, while limiting the size of the branch-and-bound subproblems. We establish validity of the node lower bounds and varepsilon-global convergence of the resulting algorithm. Computational results on synthetic benchmarks and real-world application problems show that PALM-Mean improves scalability relative to representative general-purpose deterministic global solvers, particularly as the number of training data points increases.

This paper studies a machine learning regression problem as a multivariate approximation problem using the framework of the theory of random functions. An ab initio derivation of a regression method is proposed, starting from postulates of indifference. It is shown that if a probability measure on an infinite-dimensional function space possesses natural symmetries (invariance under translation, rotation, scaling, and Gaussianity), then the entire solution scheme, including the kernel form, the type of regularization, and the noise parameterization, follows analytically from these postulates. The resulting kernel coincides with a generalized polyharmonic spline; however, unlike existing approaches, it is not chosen empirically but arises as a consequence of the indifference principle. This result provides a theoretical foundation for a broad class of smoothing and interpolation methods, demonstrating their optimality in the absence of a priori information.

We study the Stochastic Boolean Function Certification (SBFC) problem, where we are given n Bernoulli random variables {X_e: e in U} on a ground set U of n elements with joint distribution p, a Boolean function f: 2^U to {0, 1}, and an (unknown) scenario S = {e in U: X_e = 1} of active elements sampled from p. We seek to probe the elements one-at-a-time to reveal if they are active until we can certify f(S) = 1, while minimizing the expected number of probes. Unlike most previous results that assume independence, we study correlated distributions p and give approximation algorithms for several classes of functions f. When f(S) is the indicator function for whether S is the spanning set of a given matroid, our problem reduces to finding a basis of active elements of a matroid by probing elements. We give a non-adaptive O(log n)-approximation algorithm for arbitrary distributions p, and show that this is tight up to constants unless P = NP, even for partition matroids. For uniform matroids, we give constant factor 4.642-approximation ([BBFT20]) that can be further improved to a 2-approximation if additionally the random variables are negatively correlated for the case of 1-uniform matroid. We also give an adaptive O(log k)-approximation algorithm for SBFC for k-uniform matroids for the Graph Probing problem, where we seek to probe the edges of a graph one-at-a-time until we find k active edges. The underlying distribution on edges arises from (hidden) independent vertex random variables, with an edge being active if at least one of its endpoints is active. This significantly improves over the information-theoretic lower bound on Ω(poly(n)) ([JGM19]) for adaptive algorithms for k-uniform matroids with arbitrary distributions.

Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) have demonstrated the remarkable potential of neural networks to capture the intricacies of 3D objects. By encoding the shape and color information within neural network weights, NeRFs excel at producing strikingly sharp novel views of 3D objects. Recently, numerous generalizations of NeRFs utilizing generative models have emerged, expanding its versatility. In contrast, Gaussian Splatting (GS) offers a similar render quality with faster training and inference as it does not need neural networks to work. It encodes information about the 3D objects in the set of Gaussian distributions that can be rendered in 3D similarly to classical meshes. Unfortunately, GS are difficult to condition since they usually require circa hundred thousand Gaussian components. To mitigate the caveats of both models, we propose a hybrid model Viewing Direction Gaussian Splatting (VDGS) that uses GS representation of the 3D object's shape and NeRF-based encoding of color and opacity. Our model uses Gaussian distributions with trainable positions (i.e. means of Gaussian), shape (i.e. covariance of Gaussian), color and opacity, and a neural network that takes Gaussian parameters and viewing direction to produce changes in the said color and opacity. As a result, our model better describes shadows, light reflections, and the transparency of 3D objects without adding additional texture and light components.

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

Bayesian optimization (BO) has established itself as a leading strategy for efficiently optimizing expensive-to-evaluate functions. Existing BO methods mostly rely on Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models and are not applicable to (doubly-stochastic) Gaussian Cox processes, where the observation process is modulated by a latent intensity function modeled as a GP. In this paper, we propose a novel maximum a posteriori inference of Gaussian Cox processes. It leverages the Laplace approximation and change of kernel technique to transform the problem into a new reproducing kernel Hilbert space, where it becomes more tractable computationally. It enables us to obtain both a functional posterior of the latent intensity function and the covariance of the posterior, thus extending existing works that often focus on specific link functions or estimating the posterior mean. Using the result, we propose a BO framework based on the Gaussian Cox process model and further develop a Nystr\"om approximation for efficient computation. Extensive evaluations on various synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate significant improvement over state-of-the-art inference solutions for Gaussian Cox processes, as well as effective BO with a wide range of acquisition functions designed through the underlying Gaussian Cox process model.

Conventional uncertainty-aware temporal difference (TD) learning often assumes a zero-mean Gaussian distribution for TD errors, leading to inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation. We introduce a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning to enhance the flexibility of error distribution modeling by incorporating additional higher-order moment, particularly kurtosis, thereby improving the estimation and mitigation of data-dependent aleatoric uncertainty. We examine the influence of the shape parameter of the generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) on aleatoric uncertainty and provide a closed-form expression that demonstrates an inverse relationship between uncertainty and the shape parameter. Additionally, we propose a theoretically grounded weighting scheme to address epistemic uncertainty by fully leveraging the GGD. We refine batch inverse variance weighting with bias reduction and kurtosis considerations, enhancing robustness. Experiments with policy gradient algorithms demonstrate significant performance gains.

We introduce a theoretical framework for sampling from unnormalized densities based on a smoothing scheme that uses an isotropic Gaussian kernel with a single fixed noise scale. We prove one can decompose sampling from a density (minimal assumptions made on the density) into a sequence of sampling from log-concave conditional densities via accumulation of noisy measurements with equal noise levels. Our construction is unique in that it keeps track of a history of samples, making it non-Markovian as a whole, but it is lightweight algorithmically as the history only shows up in the form of a running empirical mean of samples. Our sampling algorithm generalizes walk-jump sampling (Saremi & Hyv\"arinen, 2019). The "walk" phase becomes a (non-Markovian) chain of (log-concave) Markov chains. The "jump" from the accumulated measurements is obtained by empirical Bayes. We study our sampling algorithm quantitatively using the 2-Wasserstein metric and compare it with various Langevin MCMC algorithms. We also report a remarkable capacity of our algorithm to "tunnel" between modes of a distribution.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

Appropriately designing the proposal kernel of particle filters is an issue of significant importance, since a bad choice may lead to deterioration of the particle sample and, consequently, waste of computational power. In this paper we introduce a novel algorithm adaptively approximating the so-called optimal proposal kernel by a mixture of integrated curved exponential distributions with logistic weights. This family of distributions, referred to as mixtures of experts, is broad enough to be used in the presence of multi-modality or strongly skewed distributions. The mixtures are fitted, via online-EM methods, to the optimal kernel through minimisation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the auxiliary target and instrumental distributions of the particle filter. At each iteration of the particle filter, the algorithm is required to solve only a single optimisation problem for the whole particle sample, yielding an algorithm with only linear complexity. In addition, we illustrate in a simulation study how the method can be successfully applied to optimal filtering in nonlinear state-space models.

In this work, a method of random parameters generation for randomized learning of a single-hidden-layer feedforward neural network is proposed. The method firstly, randomly selects the slope angles of the hidden neurons activation functions from an interval adjusted to the target function, then randomly rotates the activation functions, and finally distributes them across the input space. For complex target functions the proposed method gives better results than the approach commonly used in practice, where the random parameters are selected from the fixed interval. This is because it introduces the steepest fragments of the activation functions into the input hypercube, avoiding their saturation fragments.

Using a fully Bayesian approach, Gaussian Process regression is extended to include marginalisation over the kernel choice and kernel hyperparameters. In addition, Bayesian model comparison via the evidence enables direct kernel comparison. The calculation of the joint posterior was implemented with a transdimensional sampler which simultaneously samples over the discrete kernel choice and their hyperparameters by embedding these in a higher-dimensional space, from which samples are taken using nested sampling. Kernel recovery and mean function inference were explored on synthetic data from exoplanet transit light curve simulations. Subsequently, the method was extended to marginalisation over mean functions and noise models and applied to the inference of the present-day Hubble parameter, H_0, from real measurements of the Hubble parameter as a function of redshift, derived from the cosmologically model-independent cosmic chronometer and ΛCDM-dependent baryon acoustic oscillation observations. The inferred H_0 values from the cosmic chronometers, baryon acoustic oscillations and combined datasets are H_0= 66 pm 6, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1}, H_0= 67 pm 10, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1} and H_0= 69 pm 6, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1}, respectively. The kernel posterior of the cosmic chronometers dataset prefers a non-stationary linear kernel. Finally, the datasets are shown to be not in tension with ln R=12.17pm 0.02.

A desired closure property in Bayesian probability is that an updated posterior distribution be in the same class of distributions --- say Gaussians --- as the prior distribution. When the updating takes place via a statistical model, one calls the class of prior distributions the `conjugate priors' of the model. This paper gives (1) an abstract formulation of this notion of conjugate prior, using channels, in a graphical language, (2) a simple abstract proof that such conjugate priors yield Bayesian inversions, and (3) a logical description of conjugate priors that highlights the required closure of the priors under updating. The theory is illustrated with several standard examples, also covering multiple updating.

We propose a novel framework for incorporating unlabeled data into semi-supervised classification problems, where scenarios involving the minimization of either i) adversarially robust or ii) non-robust loss functions have been considered. Notably, we allow the unlabeled samples to deviate slightly (in total variation sense) from the in-domain distribution. The core idea behind our framework is to combine Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) with self-supervised training. As a result, we also leverage efficient polynomial-time algorithms for the training stage. From a theoretical standpoint, we apply our framework on the classification problem of a mixture of two Gaussians in R^d, where in addition to the m independent and labeled samples from the true distribution, a set of n (usually with ngg m) out of domain and unlabeled samples are given as well. Using only the labeled data, it is known that the generalization error can be bounded by proptoleft(d/mright)^{1/2}. However, using our method on both isotropic and non-isotropic Gaussian mixture models, one can derive a new set of analytically explicit and non-asymptotic bounds which show substantial improvement on the generalization error compared to ERM. Our results underscore two significant insights: 1) out-of-domain samples, even when unlabeled, can be harnessed to narrow the generalization gap, provided that the true data distribution adheres to a form of the ``cluster assumption", and 2) the semi-supervised learning paradigm can be regarded as a special case of our framework when there are no distributional shifts. We validate our claims through experiments conducted on a variety of synthetic and real-world datasets.

Understanding the galaxy-halo relationship is not only key for elucidating the interplay between baryonic and dark matter, it is essential for creating large mock galaxy catalogues from N-body simulations. High-resolution hydrodynamical simulations are limited to small volumes by their large computational demands, hindering their use for comparisons with wide-field observational surveys. We overcome this limitation by using the First Light and Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES), a suite of high-resolution (M_gas = 1.8 x 10^6 M_Sun) zoom simulations drawn from a large, (3.2 cGpc)^3 box. We use an extremely randomised trees machine learning approach to model the relationship between galaxies and their subhaloes in a wide range of environments. This allows us to build mock catalogues with dynamic ranges that surpass those obtainable through periodic simulations. The low cost of the zoom simulations facilitates multiple runs of the same regions, differing only in the random number seed of the subgrid models; changing this seed introduces a butterfly effect, leading to random differences in the properties of matching galaxies. This randomness cannot be learnt by a deterministic machine learning model, but by sampling the noise and adding it post-facto to our predictions, we are able to recover the distributions of the galaxy properties we predict (stellar mass, star formation rate, metallicity, and size) remarkably well. We also explore the resolution-dependence of our models' performances and find minimal depreciation down to particle resolutions of order M_DM ~ 10^8 M_Sun, enabling the future application of our models to large dark matter-only boxes.

We address the problem of finite-horizon control of a discrete-time linear system, where the initial state distribution follows a Gaussian mixture model, the terminal state must follow a specified Gaussian distribution, and the state and control inputs must obey chance constraints. We show that, throughout the time horizon, the state and control distributions are fully characterized by Gaussian mixtures. We then formulate the cost, distributional terminal constraint, and affine/2-norm chance constraints on the state and control, as convex functions of the decision variables. This is leveraged to formulate the chance-constrained path planning problem as a single convex optimization problem. A numerical example demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Conventionally, in a differentially private additive noise mechanism, independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) noise samples are added to each coordinate of the response. In this work, we formally present the addition of noise that is independent but not identically distributed (i.n.i.d.) across the coordinates to achieve tighter privacy-accuracy trade-off by exploiting coordinate-wise disparity in privacy leakage. In particular, we study the i.n.i.d. Gaussian and Laplace mechanisms and obtain the conditions under which these mechanisms guarantee privacy. The optimal choice of parameters that ensure these conditions are derived considering (weighted) mean squared and ell_{p}^{p}-errors as measures of accuracy. Theoretical analyses and numerical simulations demonstrate that the i.n.i.d. mechanisms achieve higher utility for the given privacy requirements compared to their i.i.d. counterparts. One of the interesting observations is that the Laplace mechanism outperforms Gaussian even in high dimensions, as opposed to the popular belief, if the irregularity in coordinate-wise sensitivities is exploited. We also demonstrate how the i.n.i.d. noise can improve the performance in private (a) coordinate descent, (b) principal component analysis, and (c) deep learning with group clipping.

Generating functions, which are widely used in combinatorics and probability theory, encode function values into the coefficients of a polynomial. In this paper, we explore their use as a tractable probabilistic model, and propose probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) for their efficient representation. PGCs are strictly more expressive efficient than many existing tractable probabilistic models, including determinantal point processes (DPPs), probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks, and tractable graphical models. We contend that PGCs are not just a theoretical framework that unifies vastly different existing models, but also show great potential in modeling realistic data. We exhibit a simple class of PGCs that are not trivially subsumed by simple combinations of PCs and DPPs, and obtain competitive performance on a suite of density estimation benchmarks. We also highlight PGCs' connection to the theory of strongly Rayleigh distributions.

In statistics, independent, identically distributed random samples do not carry a natural ordering, and their statistics are typically invariant with respect to permutations of their order. Thus, an n-sample in a space M can be considered as an element of the quotient space of M^n modulo the permutation group. The present paper takes this definition of sample space and the related concept of orbit types as a starting point for developing a geometric perspective on statistics. We aim at deriving a general mathematical setting for studying the behavior of empirical and population means in spaces ranging from smooth Riemannian manifolds to general stratified spaces. We fully describe the orbifold and path-metric structure of the sample space when M is a manifold or path-metric space, respectively. These results are non-trivial even when M is Euclidean. We show that the infinite sample space exists in a Gromov-Hausdorff type sense and coincides with the Wasserstein space of probability distributions on M. We exhibit Fr\'echet means and k-means as metric projections onto 1-skeleta or k-skeleta in Wasserstein space, and we define a new and more general notion of polymeans. This geometric characterization via metric projections applies equally to sample and population means, and we use it to establish asymptotic properties of polymeans such as consistency and asymptotic normality.

Implicit Neural Representations (INRs) employ neural networks to approximate discrete data as continuous functions. In the context of video data, such models can be utilized to transform the coordinates of pixel locations along with frame occurrence times (or indices) into RGB color values. Although INRs facilitate effective compression, they are unsuitable for editing purposes. One potential solution is to use a 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) based model, such as the Video Gaussian Representation (VGR), which is capable of encoding video as a multitude of 3D Gaussians and is applicable for numerous video processing operations, including editing. Nevertheless, in this case, the capacity for modification is constrained to a limited set of basic transformations. To address this issue, we introduce the Video Gaussian Splatting (VeGaS) model, which enables realistic modifications of video data. To construct VeGaS, we propose a novel family of Folded-Gaussian distributions designed to capture nonlinear dynamics in a video stream and model consecutive frames by 2D Gaussians obtained as respective conditional distributions. Our experiments demonstrate that VeGaS outperforms state-of-the-art solutions in frame reconstruction tasks and allows realistic modifications of video data. The code is available at: https://github.com/gmum/VeGaS.

Recently, 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has emerged as a prominent framework for novel view synthesis, providing high fidelity and rapid rendering speed. However, the substantial data volume of 3DGS and its attributes impede its practical utility, requiring compression techniques for reducing memory cost. Nevertheless, the unorganized shape of 3DGS leads to difficulties in compression. To formulate unstructured attributes into normative distribution, we propose a well-structured tri-plane to encode Gaussian attributes, leveraging the distribution of attributes for compression. To exploit the correlations among adjacent Gaussians, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) is used when decoding Gaussian distribution from the Tri-plane. We also introduce Gaussian position information as a prior of the position-sensitive decoder. Additionally, we incorporate an adaptive wavelet loss, aiming to focus on the high-frequency details as iterations increase. Our approach has achieved results that are comparable to or surpass that of SOTA 3D Gaussians Splatting compression work in extensive experiments across multiple datasets. The codes are released at https://github.com/timwang2001/TC-GS.

We introduce ensembles within score-based sampling methods to develop gradient-free approximate sampling techniques that leverage the collective dynamics of particle ensembles to compute approximate reverse diffusion drifts. We introduce the underlying methodology, emphasizing its relationship with generative diffusion models and the previously introduced F\"ollmer sampler. We demonstrate the efficacy of ensemble strategies through various examples, ranging from low- to medium-dimensionality sampling problems, including multi-modal and highly non-Gaussian probability distributions, and provide comparisons to traditional methods like NUTS. Our findings highlight the potential of ensemble strategies for modeling complex probability distributions in situations where gradients are unavailable. Finally, we showcase its application in the context of Bayesian inversion problems within the geophysical sciences.

We consider the problem of finding an input to a stochastic black box function such that the scalar output of the black box function is as close as possible to a target value in the sense of the expected squared error. While the optimization of stochastic black boxes is classic in (robust) Bayesian optimization, the current approaches based on Gaussian processes predominantly focus either on i) maximization/minimization rather than target value optimization or ii) on the expectation, but not the variance of the output, ignoring output variations due to stochasticity in uncontrollable environmental variables. In this work, we fill this gap and derive acquisition functions for common criteria such as the expected improvement, the probability of improvement, and the lower confidence bound, assuming that aleatoric effects are Gaussian with known variance. Our experiments illustrate that this setting is compatible with certain extensions of Gaussian processes, and show that the thus derived acquisition functions can outperform classical Bayesian optimization even if the latter assumptions are violated. An industrial use case in billet forging is presented.

Approximate inference in Gaussian process (GP) models with non-conjugate likelihoods gets entangled with the learning of the model hyperparameters. We improve hyperparameter learning in GP models and focus on the interplay between variational inference (VI) and the learning target. While VI's lower bound to the marginal likelihood is a suitable objective for inferring the approximate posterior, we show that a direct approximation of the marginal likelihood as in Expectation Propagation (EP) is a better learning objective for hyperparameter optimization. We design a hybrid training procedure to bring the best of both worlds: it leverages conjugate-computation VI for inference and uses an EP-like marginal likelihood approximation for hyperparameter learning. We compare VI, EP, Laplace approximation, and our proposed training procedure and empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal across a wide range of data sets.

We present Simplex Random Features (SimRFs), a new random feature (RF) mechanism for unbiased approximation of the softmax and Gaussian kernels by geometrical correlation of random projection vectors. We prove that SimRFs provide the smallest possible mean square error (MSE) on unbiased estimates of these kernels among the class of weight-independent geometrically-coupled positive random feature (PRF) mechanisms, substantially outperforming the previously most accurate Orthogonal Random Features at no observable extra cost. We present a more computationally expensive SimRFs+ variant, which we prove is asymptotically optimal in the broader family of weight-dependent geometrical coupling schemes (which permit correlations between random vector directions and norms). In extensive empirical studies, we show consistent gains provided by SimRFs in settings including pointwise kernel estimation, nonparametric classification and scalable Transformers.

We study the problem of predicting numeric labels that are constrained to the integers or to a subrange of the integers. For example, the number of up-votes on social media posts, or the number of bicycles available at a public rental station. While it is possible to model these as continuous values, and to apply traditional regression, this approach changes the underlying distribution on the labels from discrete to continuous. Discrete distributions have certain benefits, which leads us to the question whether such integer labels can be modeled directly by a discrete distribution, whose parameters are predicted from the features of a given instance. Moreover, we focus on the use case of output distributions of neural networks, which adds the requirement that the parameters of the distribution be continuous so that backpropagation and gradient descent may be used to learn the weights of the network. We investigate several options for such distributions, some existing and some novel, and test them on a range of tasks, including tabular learning, sequential prediction and image generation. We find that overall the best performance comes from two distributions: Bitwise, which represents the target integer in bits and places a Bernoulli distribution on each, and a discrete analogue of the Laplace distribution, which uses a distribution with exponentially decaying tails around a continuous mean.

In the past two years, several points of view have been proposed to address the question of the generalization of the theory of free probability to random tensors with different invariances, and it is unclear at this point whether they lead to the same notions of tensorial free cumulants and freeness. One way to approach this problem, developed by Collins, Gurau and the second named author for local unitary invariant random tensors, relies on finite size quantities involving averages over the invariance group, and whose asymptotics naturally possess the properties expected for tensorial generalizations of free cumulants of arbitrary orders. At this point, this approach has only been carried out for certain distributions, and for a subset of the moments that define such theories, and a more systematic and exhaustive study is lacking. This is the program initiated in this paper: we link this approach to the one proposed by Nechita and Park; extend a number of their results as well as those of the aforementioned paper to arbitrary orders of fluctuations, thereby generalizing higher order free cumulants; push further the study of distributions with larger invariance groups; detail the link with the asymptotics of the free-energies of the tensor HCIZ and BGW integrals; and provide formulae for tensorial free cumulants of products of tensors. Another important question is that of the definition of concrete distributions whose tensorial free-cumulants take non-trivial values. We compute the tensorial free cumulants for Gaussian random tensors with non-trivial covariances, and show that they provide such examples.

We study preferential Bayesian optimization (BO) where reliable feedback is limited to pairwise comparison called duels. An important challenge in preferential BO, which uses the preferential Gaussian process (GP) model to represent flexible preference structure, is that the posterior distribution is a computationally intractable skew GP. The most widely used approach for preferential BO is Gaussian approximation, which ignores the skewness of the true posterior. Alternatively, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based preferential BO is also proposed. In this work, we first verify the accuracy of Gaussian approximation, from which we reveal the critical problem that the predictive probability of duels can be inaccurate. This observation motivates us to improve the MCMC-based estimation for skew GP, for which we show the practical efficiency of Gibbs sampling and derive the low variance MC estimator. However, the computational time of MCMC can still be a bottleneck in practice. Towards building a more practical preferential BO, we develop a new method that achieves both high computational efficiency and low sample complexity, and then demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive numerical experiments.

The quality of many modern machine learning models improves as model complexity increases, an effect that has been quantified, for predictive performance, with the non-monotonic double descent learning curve. Here, we address the overarching question: is there an analogous theory of double descent for models which estimate uncertainty? We provide a partially affirmative and partially negative answer in the setting of Gaussian processes (GP). Under standard assumptions, we prove that higher model quality for optimally-tuned GPs (including uncertainty prediction) under marginal likelihood is realized for larger input dimensions, and therefore exhibits a monotone error curve. After showing that marginal likelihood does not naturally exhibit double descent in the input dimension, we highlight related forms of posterior predictive loss that do exhibit non-monotonicity. Finally, we verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.

Score-based diffusion models generate samples from an unknown target distribution using a time-reversed diffusion process. While such models represent state-of-the-art approaches in industrial applications such as artificial image generation, it has recently been noted that their performance can be further improved by considering injection noise with heavy tailed characteristics. Here, I present a generalization of generative diffusion processes to a wide class of non-Gaussian noise processes. I consider forward processes driven by standard Gaussian noise with super-imposed Poisson jumps representing a finite activity Levy process. The generative process is shown to be governed by a generalized score function that depends on the jump amplitude distribution and can be estimated by minimizing a simple MSE loss as in conventional Gaussian models. Both probability flow ODE and SDE formulations are derived using basic technical effort. A detailed implementation for a pure jump process with Laplace distributed amplitudes yields a generalized score function in closed analytical form and is shown to outperform the equivalent Gaussian model in specific parameter regimes.

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

The field of novel-view synthesis has recently witnessed the emergence of 3D Gaussian Splatting, which represents scenes in a point-based manner and renders through rasterization. This methodology, in contrast to Radiance Fields that rely on ray tracing, demonstrates superior rendering quality and speed. However, the explicit and unstructured nature of 3D Gaussians poses a significant storage challenge, impeding its broader application. To address this challenge, we introduce the Gaussian-Forest modeling framework, which hierarchically represents a scene as a forest of hybrid 3D Gaussians. Each hybrid Gaussian retains its unique explicit attributes while sharing implicit ones with its sibling Gaussians, thus optimizing parameterization with significantly fewer variables. Moreover, adaptive growth and pruning strategies are designed, ensuring detailed representation in complex regions and a notable reduction in the number of required Gaussians. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Gaussian-Forest not only maintains comparable speed and quality but also achieves a compression rate surpassing 10 times, marking a significant advancement in efficient scene modeling. Codes will be available at https://github.com/Xian-Bei/GaussianForest.

We show that taking the width and depth to infinity in a deep neural network with skip connections, when branches are scaled by 1/depth (the only nontrivial scaling), result in the same covariance structure no matter how that limit is taken. This explains why the standard infinite-width-then-depth approach provides practical insights even for networks with depth of the same order as width. We also demonstrate that the pre-activations, in this case, have Gaussian distributions which has direct applications in Bayesian deep learning. We conduct extensive simulations that show an excellent match with our theoretical findings.

Completely randomized experiments, originally developed by Fisher and Neyman in the 1930s, are still widely used in practice, even in online experimentation. However, such designs are of limited value for answering standard questions in marketplaces, where multiple populations of agents interact strategically, leading to complex patterns of spillover effects. In this paper, we derive the finite-sample properties of tractable estimators for "Simple Multiple Randomization Designs" (SMRDs), a new class of experimental designs which account for complex spillover effects in randomized experiments. Our derivations are obtained under a natural and general form of cross-unit interference, which we call "local interference". We discuss the estimation of main effects, direct effects, and spillovers, and present associated central limit theorems.

Several recent trends in machine learning theory and practice, from the design of state-of-the-art Gaussian Process to the convergence analysis of deep neural nets (DNNs) under stochastic gradient descent (SGD), have found it fruitful to study wide random neural networks. Central to these approaches are certain scaling limits of such networks. We unify these results by introducing a notion of a straightline tensor program that can express most neural network computations, and we characterize its scaling limit when its tensors are large and randomized. From our framework follows (1) the convergence of random neural networks to Gaussian processes for architectures such as recurrent neural networks, convolutional neural networks, residual networks, attention, and any combination thereof, with or without batch normalization; (2) conditions under which the gradient independence assumption -- that weights in backpropagation can be assumed to be independent from weights in the forward pass -- leads to correct computation of gradient dynamics, and corrections when it does not; (3) the convergence of the Neural Tangent Kernel, a recently proposed kernel used to predict training dynamics of neural networks under gradient descent, at initialization for all architectures in (1) without batch normalization. Mathematically, our framework is general enough to rederive classical random matrix results such as the semicircle and the Marchenko-Pastur laws, as well as recent results in neural network Jacobian singular values. We hope our work opens a way toward design of even stronger Gaussian Processes, initialization schemes to avoid gradient explosion/vanishing, and deeper understanding of SGD dynamics in modern architectures.

We present a novel stochastic variational Gaussian process (GP) inference method, based on a posterior over a learnable set of weighted pseudo input-output points (coresets). Instead of a free-form variational family, the proposed coreset-based, variational tempered family for GPs (CVTGP) is defined in terms of the GP prior and the data-likelihood; hence, accommodating the modeling inductive biases. We derive CVTGP's lower bound for the log-marginal likelihood via marginalization of the proposed posterior over latent GP coreset variables, and show it is amenable to stochastic optimization. CVTGP reduces the learnable parameter size to O(M), enjoys numerical stability, and maintains O(M^3) time- and O(M^2) space-complexity, by leveraging a coreset-based tempered posterior that, in turn, provides sparse and explainable representations of the data. Results on simulated and real-world regression problems with Gaussian observation noise validate that CVTGP provides better evidence lower-bound estimates and predictive root mean squared error than alternative stochastic GP inference methods.

3D Gaussian Splatting is a new method for modeling and rendering 3D radiance fields that achieves much faster learning and rendering time compared to SOTA NeRF methods. However, it comes with a drawback in the much larger storage demand compared to NeRF methods since it needs to store the parameters for several 3D Gaussians. We notice that many Gaussians may share similar parameters, so we introduce a simple vector quantization method based on \kmeans algorithm to quantize the Gaussian parameters. Then, we store the small codebook along with the index of the code for each Gaussian. Moreover, we compress the indices further by sorting them and using a method similar to run-length encoding. We do extensive experiments on standard benchmarks as well as a new benchmark which is an order of magnitude larger than the standard benchmarks. We show that our simple yet effective method can reduce the storage cost for the original 3D Gaussian Splatting method by a factor of almost 20times with a very small drop in the quality of rendered images.

There has been a recent surge of interest in modeling neural networks (NNs) as Gaussian processes. In the limit of a NN of infinite width the NN becomes equivalent to a Gaussian process. Here we demonstrate that for an ensemble of large, finite, fully connected networks with a single hidden layer the distribution of outputs at initialization is well described by a Gaussian perturbed by the fourth Hermite polynomial for weights drawn from a symmetric distribution. We show that the scale of the perturbation is inversely proportional to the number of units in the NN and that higher order terms decay more rapidly, thereby recovering the Edgeworth expansion. We conclude by observing that understanding how this perturbation changes under training would reveal the regimes in which the Gaussian process framework is valid to model NN behavior.

In recent times, the generation of 3D assets from text prompts has shown impressive results. Both 2D and 3D diffusion models can generate decent 3D objects based on prompts. 3D diffusion models have good 3D consistency, but their quality and generalization are limited as trainable 3D data is expensive and hard to obtain. 2D diffusion models enjoy strong abilities of generalization and fine generation, but the 3D consistency is hard to guarantee. This paper attempts to bridge the power from the two types of diffusion models via the recent explicit and efficient 3D Gaussian splatting representation. A fast 3D generation framework, named as \name, is proposed, where the 3D diffusion model provides point cloud priors for initialization and the 2D diffusion model enriches the geometry and appearance. Operations of noisy point growing and color perturbation are introduced to enhance the initialized Gaussians. Our \name can generate a high-quality 3D instance within 25 minutes on one GPU, much faster than previous methods, while the generated instances can be directly rendered in real time. Demos and code are available at https://taoranyi.com/gaussiandreamer/.

This work introduces the Efficient Transformed Gaussian Process (ETGP), a new way of creating C stochastic processes characterized by: 1) the C processes are non-stationary, 2) the C processes are dependent by construction without needing a mixing matrix, 3) training and making predictions is very efficient since the number of Gaussian Processes (GP) operations (e.g. inverting the inducing point's covariance matrix) do not depend on the number of processes. This makes the ETGP particularly suited for multi-class problems with a very large number of classes, which are the problems studied in this work. ETGPs exploit the recently proposed Transformed Gaussian Process (TGP), a stochastic process specified by transforming a Gaussian Process using an invertible transformation. However, unlike TGPs, ETGPs are constructed by transforming a single sample from a GP using C invertible transformations. We derive an efficient sparse variational inference algorithm for the proposed model and demonstrate its utility in 5 classification tasks which include low/medium/large datasets and a different number of classes, ranging from just a few to hundreds. Our results show that ETGPs, in general, outperform state-of-the-art methods for multi-class classification based on GPs, and have a lower computational cost (around one order of magnitude smaller).

Addressing imbalanced or long-tailed data is a major challenge in visual recognition tasks due to disparities between training and testing distributions and issues with data noise. We propose the Wrapped Cauchy Distributed Angular Softmax (WCDAS), a novel softmax function that incorporates data-wise Gaussian-based kernels into the angular correlation between feature representations and classifier weights, effectively mitigating noise and sparse sampling concerns. The class-wise distribution of angular representation becomes a sum of these kernels. Our theoretical analysis reveals that the wrapped Cauchy distribution excels the Gaussian distribution in approximating mixed distributions. Additionally, WCDAS uses trainable concentration parameters to dynamically adjust the compactness and margin of each class. Empirical results confirm label-aware behavior in these parameters and demonstrate WCDAS's superiority over other state-of-the-art softmax-based methods in handling long-tailed visual recognition across multiple benchmark datasets. The code is public available.

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic modeling, but their performance is often constrained in complex, largescale real-world domains due to the limited expressivity of classical kernels. Quantum computing offers the potential to overcome this limitation by embedding data into exponentially large Hilbert spaces, capturing complex correlations that remain inaccessible to classical computing approaches. In this paper, we propose a Distributed Quantum Gaussian Process (DQGP) method in a multiagent setting to enhance modeling capabilities and scalability. To address the challenging non-Euclidean optimization problem, we develop a Distributed consensus Riemannian Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (DR-ADMM) algorithm that aggregates local agent models into a global model. We evaluate the efficacy of our method through numerical experiments conducted on a quantum simulator in classical hardware. We use real-world, non-stationary elevation datasets of NASA's Shuttle Radar Topography Mission and synthetic datasets generated by Quantum Gaussian Processes. Beyond modeling advantages, our framework highlights potential computational speedups that quantum hardware may provide, particularly in Gaussian processes and distributed optimization.

This paper revisits the problem of computing empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF) efficiently on large, multivariate datasets. Computing an ECDF at one evaluation point requires O(N) operations on a dataset composed of N data points. Therefore, a direct evaluation of ECDFs at N evaluation points requires a quadratic O(N^2) operations, which is prohibitive for large-scale problems. Two fast and exact methods are proposed and compared. The first one is based on fast summation in lexicographical order, with a O(N{log}N) complexity and requires the evaluation points to lie on a regular grid. The second one is based on the divide-and-conquer principle, with a O(Nlog(N)^{(d-1){vee}1}) complexity and requires the evaluation points to coincide with the input points. The two fast algorithms are described and detailed in the general d-dimensional case, and numerical experiments validate their speed and accuracy. Secondly, the paper establishes a direct connection between cumulative distribution functions and kernel density estimation (KDE) for a large class of kernels. This connection paves the way for fast exact algorithms for multivariate kernel density estimation and kernel regression. Numerical tests with the Laplacian kernel validate the speed and accuracy of the proposed algorithms. A broad range of large-scale multivariate density estimation, cumulative distribution estimation, survival function estimation and regression problems can benefit from the proposed numerical methods.

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are a useful probabilistic model for selecting a small diverse subset out of a large collection of items, with applications in summarization, stochastic optimization, active learning and more. Given a kernel function and a subset size k, our goal is to sample k out of n items with probability proportional to the determinant of the kernel matrix induced by the subset (a.k.a. k-DPP). Existing k-DPP sampling algorithms require an expensive preprocessing step which involves multiple passes over all n items, making it infeasible for large datasets. A naïve heuristic addressing this problem is to uniformly subsample a fraction of the data and perform k-DPP sampling only on those items, however this method offers no guarantee that the produced sample will even approximately resemble the target distribution over the original dataset. In this paper, we develop an algorithm which adaptively builds a sufficiently large uniform sample of data that is then used to efficiently generate a smaller set of k items, while ensuring that this set is drawn exactly from the target distribution defined on all n items. We show empirically that our algorithm produces a k-DPP sample after observing only a small fraction of all elements, leading to several orders of magnitude faster performance compared to the state-of-the-art.

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

We introduce a new class of algorithms, Stochastic Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM), for estimation and inference on (overidentified) moment restriction models. Our SGMM is a novel stochastic approximation alternative to the popular Hansen (1982) (offline) GMM, and offers fast and scalable implementation with the ability to handle streaming datasets in real time. We establish the almost sure convergence, and the (functional) central limit theorem for the inefficient online 2SLS and the efficient SGMM. Moreover, we propose online versions of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman and Sargan-Hansen tests that can be seamlessly integrated within the SGMM framework. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that as the sample size increases, the SGMM matches the standard (offline) GMM in terms of estimation accuracy and gains over computational efficiency, indicating its practical value for both large-scale and online datasets. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by a proof of concept using two well known empirical examples with large sample sizes.

3D Gaussian splatting (3DGS) has shown promising results in image rendering and surface reconstruction. However, its potential in volumetric reconstruction tasks, such as X-ray computed tomography, remains under-explored. This paper introduces R^2-Gaussian, the first 3DGS-based framework for sparse-view tomographic reconstruction. By carefully deriving X-ray rasterization functions, we discover a previously unknown integration bias in the standard 3DGS formulation, which hampers accurate volume retrieval. To address this issue, we propose a novel rectification technique via refactoring the projection from 3D to 2D Gaussians. Our new method presents three key innovations: (1) introducing tailored Gaussian kernels, (2) extending rasterization to X-ray imaging, and (3) developing a CUDA-based differentiable voxelizer. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in accuracy and efficiency. Crucially, it delivers high-quality results in 4 minutes, which is 12times faster than NeRF-based methods and on par with traditional algorithms. Code and models are available on the project page https://github.com/Ruyi-Zha/r2_gaussian.

We study the relation between the total variation (TV) and Hellinger distances between two Gaussian location mixtures. Our first result establishes a general upper bound: for any two mixing distributions supported on a compact set, the Hellinger distance between the two mixtures is controlled by the TV distance raised to a power 1-o(1), where the o(1) term is of order 1/loglog(1/TV). We also construct two sequences of mixing distributions that demonstrate the sharpness of this bound. Taken together, our results resolve an open problem raised in Jia et al. (2023) and thus lead to an entropic characterization of learning Gaussian mixtures in total variation. Our inequality also yields optimal robust estimation of Gaussian mixtures in Hellinger distance, which has a direct implication for bounding the minimax regret of empirical Bayes under Huber contamination.